Bank Nifty 18th May 2015
Bank Nifty last week was volatile, after touching a high of 18240 on 12th May 2015 then fell sharply to 17597 and then recovered to close flat for the week ended 15th May 2015. Bank Nifty both major and minor trend remains down. Bank Nifty has resistance between 18260-18300 Bank Nifty spot levels mentioned. Further Bank Nifty has critical time cycle resistance on 18th May 2015 and 19th May 2015. (We expect a rate cut to be announced on 18th May 2015 or 19th May 2015) When rate cut happens Bank Nifty Futures will either gap up or rally and create a top and start falling in a ultra super sonic speed, if that happens then Bank nifty Futures Target within May Future (28th May 2015) will be 16600 Bank Nifty Spot Levels mentioned. If decline post Rate cut is slow then there are some different possibilities which I will discuss at a later stage.
Bank Nifty components Axis Bank has resistance between 572-568 unless stable above 572 (Nse Cash levels Mentioned) do not even try to bottom fish. Above 572 Axis Bank Trend becomes neutral. (It does not turn up). Icici Bank is very weak among private sector Banks for Traders who want to do stock trading this will be the counter to sell / short sell if we get breakdown signals in Bank Nifty Futures. Avoid Yes Bank for now. Within Public sector Banks SBIN has resistance at 292 (Nse cash levels mentioned) like Axis Bank SBIN Trend changes to Neutral if SBIN is stable above 292. Punjab National Bank is very weak within Public sector Banks and this is the one to sell if Bank Nifty Futures gives us break down signals.
Overall unless and until Bank Nifty is clears the time cycle resistance zone of coming Tuesday 19th May and if stable at higher levels post rate cut by Reserve Bank of India we won’t advice / recommend to Buy or Hold positions. Even if we get Buying signals we will be entering only at small stop loss points as usual.
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