Nifty Prediction secondary top will be in the range of —– and that is the reason I am saying to buy delivery in high quality
Part of what we told our clients
[11:02 PM, 3/17/2020] Glenn: Many of you have been trying to contact me to ask my view in person and talk to me since I am unable to talk to everyone I am once again putting this out clearly so please read carefully.
As per my longer term cycles and calculations I see a top in this year 2020 but that top will be formed in the period of Aug-Nov 2020 and there is no cycle in my studies which show that we have made a final top. Yes, it is possible that a major top is in place but even in that scenario a secondary top is going to be formed between Aug-Nov 2020 and that secondary top will be in the range of —— and that is the reason I am saying to buy delivery in high quality. Buy stocks like Davis Labs, Pidilit Ind, Maharashtra Scooters, Hdfc Bank, Icici Bank, Jub Food, Tata Consumer, Tata Motors (I know this is hammered like hell but this company is undergoing massive transformation and will be a great stock to own in few years) Siemens to name a few this stocks will broadly out perform on the way higher and give great returns by the time markets reach a secondary or a final top in Aug to Nov 2020. So bottom line is one major rally will come in from current prices or around —- spot Nifty level from where we will see this rally.
Now, some of you could argue saying the economy is decimated but I had made this prediction at the start of the year that by May 3rd week we will see all Govts and all central banks providing stimulus packages and the world markets will be flushed with liquidity and keep in mind that the rally which will lead to a secondary or final top will be a purely liquidity driven rally not a fundamental economic recovery based rally so keep that in mind. FED has already moved and eventually by 3rd week of May all Govts and central banks would have moved to cut rates and provide stimulus for the economy so though the headline numbers and the data on economic parameters will remain bad and wont improve much still we will see the rally because it will see a liquidity driven rally.
Post the secondary or final top what happens we will not get into that as of now but for now keep in mind that a secondary rally or final top will come and could last till Aug-Nov period. In between this we could see minor pullback in month of June but those pullbacks wont mean much and key take away is that final or secondary top will be formed in Aug-Nov 2020 and whatever prices we are seeing as of now is a great steal to buy.
Now my only concern is that we should not rally sharply into next week because if that happens there is a possibility of lower top being formed next week and then major bottom in 3rd week of may (I don’t see this likely ) but we would prefer a gradual low being formed into next week in that case a multi month rally into aug to nov should unfold taking Nifty eventually to ——
I have been saying this for the past few days and I am saying this again that the best trade or rather the safest trade is to sell usdinr 74+ calls and keep rolling over for the next few months because one of the main reason for usdinr reaching 74 levels was fiscal deficit and trade deficit as per my calculations both have now turned in India’s favor so we see usdinr pair heading lower towards 70 in the coming weeks so a carry trade is the best here.
Gold and silver we will update later as things keep getting clearer because in rupee terms we don’t see a great cycle for gold or silver in the near term but we will wait for a few more days on that.
[11:04 AM, 3/18/2020] Glenn: Icici bank buy at 345-350 SL 339 TGT 370 spot levels mentioned
[1:08 PM, 3/18/2020] Glenn: Nifty 26 March sell 8300 Put 1 Part SL
[1:08 PM, 3/18/2020] Glenn: SL day low
[1:29 PM, 3/18/2020] Glenn: Icici bank book 50 percent at 360 spot rate and trail remaining qty to 339 and hold
[1:39 PM, 3/18/2020] Glenn: Confirmation icici booked 50 percent
[2:12 PM, 3/18/2020] Glenn: SL hit in Put short exit
[2:15 PM, 3/18/2020] Glenn: Icici bank hold SL 339 spot for remaining long qty