Nifty Prediction 23 June ’20

Nifty Prediction from a traders perspective trend looks to be in a mature stage however unless we see a reversal do not short sell.

So from a traders perspective we see that trend remains up however the strength of the trend is becoming sluggish and weaker by the day so we would not advocate any fresh longs for now however on reversal confirmation otm puts can be bought (only on a reversal confirmation) We will discuss more on the trading aspect in the next few updates.

The more important aspect as of now is that from a portfolio stand point and I say this because most of the value that was on the table at 7500 is now no longer available and I am advising getting to higher levels of cash because at the end of the day remember that this current rally remains a liquidity driven rally and not a fundamentally driven rally so though nothing has changed from 7500 to now from a fundamental perspective but the valuation safety that was present at 7500 is now no longer available and hence the risk reward is not in flavor of buying fresh or even remaining invested in the markets so though near term we could see higher levels it is important to emphasise that longer term money is always been made whenever there has been core earnings growth in the stock and as of now there is no earnings growth in fact we can see a earnings contraction in the next few quarters and looking at that situation stocks do not remain a good place to be. Sure there are some isolated pockets where growth will remain more or less or relatively unaffected however most of the stocks especially those set of stocks which have historically not generated earnings growth and have not been wealth creators will take a even bigger hit because most people are buying them because they have fallen a lot or it looks optically cheap to them but the basic core idea should be to buy high quality which have good management and have historically track record of good earnings growth but even in these set of stocks as of now there is no value and with a earnings contraction taking place over the next few quarters we will see lower prices even in them. Ideally investors should look to buy stocks where earnings will be intact. I have discussed one such stock on my twitter handle so you can have a look there for details.

Also from an astro cycles perspective it is prudent to note that as of now Mercury, Jupiter, Saturn, Venus and Neptune all are retrograde and as a general observation but not as a rule whenever planets are retrograde they will provide the energy as though they are in their previous house so if we take a combination of these energies the market should and will be have like that of 2019 ending few months so in the end of 2019 markets were ignoring all the issues, realities and even that too was just a price multiple expansion rally and this time also during their respective retrograde phase they are doing the same however once these planets start ending their retrogrades or start crossing their mid points they will slowly start imparting the energy that was prevalent during Feb to April time band and that we all know was a massive decline energy or a contraction energy so what was going on was irrational exuberance changed to mass hysteria in just a few days and with Venus going direct on 25th June we could start seeing the beginning of this change in energy I say this because Venus rules money and value so markets are a function of value but overall there could be some changes and by the time mid points and retrogrades of all major planets ends we could be back to the energy of contraction like we did see in the first half of the year.

As usual if you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and then only trade please do not over trade and always keep your risk in check.