Nifty Prediction pullback trend that started at 7511 is in mature stage. From portfolio stand point get onto cash to buy again at lower levels in second half of the year.
So many traders have suddenly become bullish and are now talking of levels of 11600 or 10800 or 11000 but we will go by analytical evidences rather than emotional analysis that many people seem to be doing as of now. First things first when Nifty was at 7511 or rather around 7800 levels we clearly gave a very aggressive invest call on the Indian stock markets for targets of 10200 which is done and we were saying this because a combination of wave analysis + cycle analysis + valuation analysis was confirming that we will see a pullback rally and it important to emphasise this again a pullback rally will come to 10200 which can extend to 10800 or 11000 also so for the record and for simplicity of understanding this is what we had written
Part of what we had predicted on 24 March ’20
[9:16 AM, 3/24/2020] Glen Drago: Good morning
[9:16 AM, 3/24/2020] Glen Drago: Nifty heading for 10600-10800 in next few weeks now
[9:17 AM, 3/24/2020] Glen Drago: Those who can hold sell April 7800 puts and hold
[9:18 AM, 3/24/2020] Glen Drago: Buy delivery in recommended stocks and hold
[9:18 AM, 3/24/2020] Glen Drago: expected move CMP-7350>>10200-10800 (2/3rd week of may/ 4th week June) >>>—00—-00 (—–end)>>>> Aug-Nov 1—–0>>—— (Oct 2021)>>23800 (2025-2024)
So we had 2 scenarios 10200 plus being achieved by 3rd week of may or last week of June and more or less we have done that but what remains now is that this was and still remains a pullback rally and not a fresh bullish move and most traders and investors are now getting bullish after a major rally in the Nifty so this is not a area as per my calculations to become bullish and when I say this surely we can still come a bit more higher from current levels however do I see this levels sustaining over time and the answer to that question is no. I do not expect Nifty to sustain around these levels and I say that because of many reasons but for today let us just look at the valuations that are currently present. if we just take a simple historical PE we have always seen a 25% fall from valuations around 27 yes they can go to 29 also however from the level of 27 we have seen a fall of 25% without any exception in Indian stock markets so yes some more upside is possible but over the next few months if you do historical back testing we have without any exception seen lower levels and that too significantly lower levels so this is a simple parameter that anyone can see and confirm for themselves.
Astrological cycles and I do know that there are many people who will disregard this way of analysis however historical data suggest that this has been a great and extremely effective way to know what sort of wave counts will come in well in advance and this is one of the reason we were saying from 7511 that time cycle does not support downside prices and they will main supportive either till 3rd week of may or last week of June ’20 and we are now done with June so point to keep in mind is that I am not predicting this a fresh today based on astro cycles I was all along saying a pullback rally will come and that will but nothing more than a pullback rally and that is more or less done so if we just look at the cycles which are at play now they keep becoming more and more negative over the next few days sure the transition is a bit slow due to Jupiter, Saturn, Mercury, Neptune all are retrograde however as they start crossing their half points of this present retrograde cycle we will start seeing the similar energy of that of March so based on astro cycles also Nifty will not sustain higher over the next few weeks and I will not be surprised to see significantly lower levels from current levels.
If we just take a look at the wave and the manner in which this current move has come some may call it a diametric and if we look at this from a diametric stand point then currently we are in wave g of the diametric that started at 7511 of wave B or some may label this as a a-b-c-x-a-b-c so even if we look at this from either possibility we still end up with the same conclusion that pullback trend is in mature stage now they are some suggesting that this may end up as a triple combination but combination of astro cycles and valuations do not support a triple combination count so I wont get into that however one common take away remains that this remains a corrective pullback rally and post this corrective pullback rally we should resume the down move that we started in the start of the year. Point is look at this from any stand point and you will reach just one conclusion and that is that pullback rally that started from 7511 is in mature stage. Now, many of you will ask me for the downside projections for Nifty but we will put those targets out later for now keep in mind that none of my time tested systems suggest that there is huge upside and all of those systems show that there will be some major downside price levels which will come in the next few weeks and months.
As usual if you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and then only trade please do not over trade and always keep your risk in check.