Nifty Prediction 26th Sep 19
As predicted two days back Nifty made a top around 11700 and now has come to our target area of 11400. All our clients have been updated with the next move and lower side target areas and what needs to be done at current prices. We remain very bullish on silver and at appropriate levels, we will add.
Part of what we recommended in the last few days
[23/09, 9:15 AM] Glen: Good morning
[23/09, 9:15 AM] Glen: Wait for msg to trade
[23/09, 9:21 AM] Glen: Reliance hold remaining 50 percent long qty as told
[23/09, 9:32 AM] Glen: Hold silver longs added around 46000 don’t chase price now we will add more if comes below 46000. First-round physical longs accumulated around 35 to 38 continue holding
[23/09, 10:08 AM] Glen: Wait for msg to trade. Do not short sell
[23/09, 10:11 AM] Glen: All shorts are trapped as of now. Every person is selling or averaging their shorts
[23/09, 10:46 AM] Glen: Reliance hold remaining 50 percent long qty as told. As and when anything needs to be done will update
[23/09, 11:41 AM] Glen: 31 Oct 11700 Call sell 1 part at cmp
[23/09, 11:42 AM] Glen: Nifty can come towards 11700 also if comes higher we will sell some more but we see a pullback towards 11400 first
[23/09, 11:44 AM] Glen: Reliance book remaining longs at cmp on dip we will buy again
[23/09, 11:44 AM] Glen: Confirmation no open positions in reliance
[23/09, 12:14 PM] Glen: Nifty Fut Sell 1 part at cmp
[23/09, 12:14 PM] Glen: Total 2 parts 31 Oct 11700 Call short and Nifty Fut 1 Part shortb
[23/09, 12:43 PM] Glen: Nifty Fut Sell 3rd part at cmp
[23/09, 10:31 PM] Glen: Continue holding silver longs we are heading for 1 L target at appropriate levels we will add
[23/09, 10:35 PM] Glen: Downside in silver is very limited
[23/09, 10:36 PM] Glen: On any dip or panic we will add
[25/09, 9:07 AM] Glen: Good morning
[25/09, 9:07 AM] Glen: No open positions in Nifty for now
[25/09, 10:17 AM] Glen: Kuantum paper accumulate below 400
[25/09, 10:18 AM] Glen: Silver hold longs as told in panic or dips we will buy more
[25/09, 12:45 PM] Glen: We will be buying nifty around 11—11—- area wait for lower levels
[25/09, 1:46 PM] Glen: — buy in 2 Parts 1st part at 279 spot Nse Cash level
[25/09, 3:17 PM] Glen: —- buy 1 Part at cmp keep space for 2nd part
[25/09, 3:17 PM] Glen: Nifty wait for 11—-spot level
Nifty longer-term prediction based on the overall analysis of the economy.
Nifty had a massive move on Friday and has followed it up on Monday and many have become super bullish now. Many are talking about new high and some are even predicting that downside move has ended but let us look at the overall picture before coming to any conclusion.
Everyone has become super bullish on the street by looking at the equity markets but everyone has missed the bond markets which have on valid fears that fiscal deficit will be widening towards 4.2 so the net effect of this will be that RBI will have much lesser room to cut rates also rupee will eventually move to higher targets first towards 72.50 and then eventually towards 76 and then 82 when the currency wars start’s later by the end of 2019 and into 2020 we will see this as an added problem for our economy but that is not the real problem. The real problem is that Govt has totally misunderstood the core problem of our economy and that is there is no demand.
Demand will not directly come back into the economy by cutting taxes for corporates. (Govt feels that if taxes are cut then corporates will invest in capacity expansion and that will lead to more jobs etc) but when your capacity utilization is low corporates are not going to add capacity just because they will get lower taxes. All this corporate tax cut will end up doing is pushing Nifty EPS up by 5% or 7% at best for which most of the market has already adjusted. The stimulus is not going to work for the economy as per my understanding and number crunching so in a nutshell investors should avoid betting big on the market or starting to invest in portfolios or creating fresh ones. It would have been prudent for the Govt to cut personal income taxes, cut on govt expenditure so that RBI gets a massive room for rate cuts which would stimulate demand with the caveat that Govt is ok with a fiscal deficit going towards 4.2%.
Anyways from a market perspective, this is not going to last for long although the intent was right we feel the stimulus has been misdirected and intent of reviving the economy is reduced further the firepower of the Govt has further reduced to effectively stimulate growth due to fiscal constraints.
Nifty astrological Prediction
Now it is also important to understand that as of now we are having a Jupiter 90 Neptune aspect. Jupiter represents exaggeration, expansion and Neptune does not like any boundaries we had mentioned in our previous update that this aspect has a very strong correlation to create massive euphoria in the markets and that is what we are seeing but it is also important to note that over 90% of the times within an orbit of influence this signature has known to create tops in the market so while everyone is super bullish it is important to do fact check. It is also important to note that Jupiter will leave the sign of Sagittarius by early Dec and historically once again over 90% of the times we have seen tops being formed in the market and we do not think that this time will be any different. So this is not a time to build portfolios yes from a trading perspective we may take a few trades here and there but overall we do not see a great time to be building portfolios like most of the people on the street are suggesting.
Silver we remain very bullish so buy on dips and hold for 1 L target.
Good trading to you!