Nifty trend / Nifty prediction 27th Feb 19
Nifty trend today in the first half was bearish after the news of surgical strikes hit the market. Nifty at one point was down by over 100 points however Nifty recovered smartly but failed to sustain higher and closed the day around 51 points lower from yesterday’s close so many traders who were long yesterday booked out of their longs in the morning thinking that markets will now move lower and the same thought was with the bearish traders and hence the traders who had covered short positions yesterday once again were seen building up short sell positions in the morning however most of the shorts were cut around end of the day today or rather in the second half of the day. The story with the long traders was also similar the traders who had bought positions yesterday exited in the morning in losses and towards end of trade once again nifty was around yesterdays levels so net net nor the bullish view traders ended up making money nor did the bearish view traders end up making money the entire spectrum of traders did not make money or lost money and the reason for that is that they tried taking a directional trade in the Nifty or the Bank Nifty when the overall Nifty trend is sideways between 11000-10600. Regular readers of this website are well aware that we have been predicting Nifty sideways trend for sometime now and till the time we do not see Nifty moving past 10600-11000 with volumes this trade of taking directional trades is not going to end in a hurry and hence we have been advising to be very nimble footed and trade instruments that are trending either trending up or trending down but must be in a trend or from a portfolio stand point must be at deep value levels or take tactical trades wherever deemed fit but certainly taking a directional trade as of now will not make any money.
Part of what we did yesterday
[2:18 PM, 2/25/2019] Glen: Book profit in 10700 March 28 Put shorts for sell done at 200 CMP 111
[2:18 PM, 2/25/2019] Glen: Book profit in hero motors for buy done at 2630 nse cash levels mentioned. CMP 2717
[2:18 PM, 2/25/2019] Glen: Confirmation no open trading positions
As usual if you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and then only trade please do not over trade and always keep your risk in check before trading. We see the oncoming time based on my Nifty trend analysis / Nifty prediction a range expansion will eventually take place. With the elections round the corner and assuming Modi comes back to power with majority then we could see a sentiment based rally towards a bit higher than 11400-11500 area but eventually we do not see Nifty sustaining on the higher side even if this scenario pans out and if it’s a combination of UPA led parties then we could see a knee jerk reaction for lower side levels of around 9800 or may be a bit lower from there but overall we don’t see that Nifty will sustain much lower also for that matter the broader Indian stock market will be a deep value assuming that 9800 comes so more or less around those levels will be a great time to build your portfolio as individually stock wise we would have seen a bottom in most of these stocks. Please keep in mind that there are specific stocks that are already at deep value area and the downside in these stocks is very limited and hence these set of stocks should be bought regardless of where the Nifty moves.
Good trading to you!