Nifty trend / Nifty prediction 9th May 19
Nifty trend today was lower though there was some sharp volatility during the trading day however, Nifty ended day at the low point. There are many traders who are stuck in portfolio longs as well as trading long positions. We reiterate our view and prediction that from a broad market perspective we do not see much returns for the market or for that matter any returns. Most of you are aware that what Nifty is showing and what most portfolios are showing are two different things and that’s because the Nifty has been moving higher thanks to a handful of stocks so although optically everything looks ok on the Nifty but on the broad market front there are some serious problems which we have been highlighting for the past few weeks. Nifty trend is down. Nifty prediction is we expect to see lower levels from here on rise exit portfolio longs if any.
Many of you are aware that we have been saying that the biggest problem for this market is earnings growth and till earnings growth does not come back to the market we can forget a bull market once again we are saying that sure there will be exceptions, however, from a broad market perspective we do not see any earnings growth, further there is some significant demand slowdown in the economy which we have been red-flagging since past 3-4 months and now that slow down is becoming very evident from FMCG numbers to some of the auto numbers we can see that the slowdown is sharp and as per our estimates the slowdown will continue for some more time so we are not in the camp that believes that once the election is over everything will be back to normal. No we are not suggesting that for even one minute so keep in mind that we are not expecting any demand recovery in the economy in the near future and in this scenario we do not see earnings growth coming back to the rescue of the market and the extremely high valuations.
Another important factor that the market will have to grapple with is the election results and sure there will be volatility in the days to come however we are once again repeating this that we are not bothered who comes to power in Delhi as the structural problems in the economy are much bigger and beyond a day or two we don’t see any sustainable rally in the markets and that is assuming that NDA comes back to power with absolute majority which we do not see happening. The latest satta market figures show around 230 for the NDA but as we said its not that will make much difference to the core factor which drives the market.
From a technical perspective trend is down and we are heading for target of —– and the reversal point for this down move is 11— spot so till 11— does not break on the higher side we do not see any sense in buying even for momentum trading.
Good Trading to you!