Nifty trend / Nifty prediction April 5th 19
Nifty trend today was bearish in line with our Nifty prediction. The all-important RBI credit policy also was perfectly in line with our expectations. Some important time cycles are going to be at play from today and all of them have historically coincided with large price swing so get ready for sharp moves especially in the currency markets and some metals.
As we have been guiding over the past few days that sure there can be some more upside we are not disputing that possibility however as far as our analysis goes we are of the view that Nifty pullback trend that started at 10000 is more or less done and upsides from current levels are going to be limited or restricted and at the same time it is important to keep in mind that markets have fully more or less factored in all the positives for the market so if anything does not move with what the market has factored in there could be a severe sell-off.
Part of what we told our clients over the past few days
03/04/19, 8:57 am – Glen: Good morning
03/04/19, 8:57 am – Glen: Don’t see much upside however if SL hits then exit for now when and where to renter will update
03/04/19, 9:00 am – Glen: We are positive on —- so as a proxy buy —- below 30 we see target of 100 for this stock in 18 months. Some of you asked me about —- and —- also both don’t have much Downside but we see —- coming back to around 48 so at that time we will buy —- again same goes with —- don’t see much Downside in these stocks
03/04/19, 9:00 am – Glen: Accumulate () on dips below 30
03/04/19, 9:05 am – Glen: Usdinr will make a bottom by tomorrow and then our view is we should see higher levels of 75 plus. The rise especially from tomorrow till 15th April could be very sharp
03/04/19, 9:30 am – Glen: Keep 11762 spot SL and hold as told
03/04/19, 9:30 am – Glen: Accumulate ()
03/04/19, 10:54 am – Glen: Gold we don’t see below 30500 and see higher target of 36730
03/04/19, 1:21 pm – Glen: Accumulate ()
03/04/19, 1:21 pm – Glen: Hold short done with 11762 SL spot
03/04/19, 1:22 pm – Glen: If anything else has to be done will update
03/04/19, 3:12 pm – Glen: Hold positions as told
04/04/19, 9:03 am – Glen: Good morning
04/04/19, 9:03 am – Glen: Hold positions as told
04/04/19, 9:03 am – Glen: Expect rbi to cut. 25 bps. Policy stance neutral event has been priced in
04/04/19, 9:03 am – Glen: Accumulate ()
04/04/19, 9:44 am – Glen: Accumulate ()
04/04/19, 10:52 am – Glen: Policy stance neutral, 0.25 bps cut, gdp forecast revised lower to 7.1
04/04/19, 10:53 am – Glen: Guidance for rate cuts will remain data dependent
04/04/19, 10:53 am – Glen: As per our sources
04/04/19, 12:01 pm – Glen: Policy in line as expected
04/04/19, 12:02 pm – Glen: As I have said in previous updates also baring a few exceptional cases we don’t see any returns for equity
04/04/19, 12:03 pm – Glen: I don’t care who forms the govt, I don’t care what rbi does from here on. Growth and earnings are contracting at extremely rapid pace and with such an environment we dont see how such hefty valuations will be digested especially with the fact that we are trading at a premium to em basket also
04/04/19, 12:10 pm – Glen: Hold positions as told
04/04/19, 12:10 pm – Glen: There could be some minor volatility
04/04/19, 12:30 pm – Glen: overall we don’t see Nifty sustaining higher. Nifty post volatility should start making lower tops and lower bottoms overall once —– spot is broken we get confirmation of down move.
Good trading to you!