Nifty trend prediction today 22-1-19
Nifty longer-term trend remains down and there is significant resistance in and around the level of —- however short term Nifty trend remains sideways with a positive bias and hence Nifty can still move a bit more higher than current levels and end up testing the resistance area of —-. There are many traders who are expecting a pre-budget rally but I am not in the camp that feels any pre-budget rally will happen simply because the current budget will be an interim one and we do expect many populist measures to be announced specifically for the farmers of the country now these populist measures will surely dent the already dented fiscal deficit and that in turn will lead to a rupee depreciation so in a background where fiscal prudence is going to be tested, uncertainty on the election front in terms of upcoming LS elections. I do not think that Indian share markets will be rallying significantly from current levels (again I am saying there could be some more upside but not significant upside). These are some factors which are event-based but the bigger problem for the Indian share markets is that lack of earnings growth and this has been the problem for the past few years now historically keep in mind that the only one constant factor which has supported the Indian share market regardless of the which govt is in place is earnings growth and that component has been missing. Since based on our time cycle calculation we see that there is earnings bottom cycle coming up we see that over the next few months there will be many earnings misses and that will form the bottom cycle for earnings but as that story plays out in the very near term stocks will keep looking very expensive and that will eventually lead to a cooling in the valuations. The question is when does this happen not if.
As per my Nifty prediction/forecast, I do not see Nifty moving much higher from current levels due to a host of reasons which I have explained above these are just a few of the reasons but there are many more reasons which we will discuss over the next few trading days. From a time cycle perspective there are some important long term cycles playing out over the next few trading days and hence be very nimble footed and be very alert. If you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management please do not over trade and always keep your risk in check.
Good Trading To You!