Nifty trend today / Nifty prediction today 8th Feb 19
Nifty trend today was very choppy with Nifty trend being positive in the first hour of trade then around the RBI policy we did see a sell off and then Nifty once again gained to close the day in the green so in a nut shell Nifty was all over the place and most intraday traders had a hard time today trying to trade Nifty. Based on my Nifty trend analysis / Nifty prediction Nifty short term trend remains up till the time support area of 10800-10900 is held however keep in mind that on the higher side there are resistances which are present and hence it does not mean that traders can buy anywhere and anyhow, keep in mind that the present rally that has started from around 10000 levels is not new and currently as per my analysis we are in a pullback rally where the pullback rally ends is a different question altogether however as of now in the very near term till the time we do not have a reversal confirmation we have to wait to short sell better still it will be better to look elsewhere in the very near term or to put it in simple words as we have been guiding here for the past few trading days that there are better trading opportunities available in the near term from an individual stock specific point of view and hence it will be much more better to trade individual stocks which are in a clear trend can be either uptrend or a down trend but in either case it will be better to go to stocks where there is clear trend available rather than trying to trade instruments like Nifty Futures or Bank Nifty futures where the trend is predicted in the very near term is predicted and expected to be very choppy.
Please keep in mind that we are not suggesting for one minute that Nifty can’t come a bit more higher than current levels sure we can see levels of around 11300 or even a bit more higher levels than 11300 however the important point to keep in mind is this that due to slow or lack or earnings on the Nifty basket we do not see Nifty sustaining on the higher side, also it is important to keep this calculation in mind, as of now we are trading at around 11100 let us take this as our base point for calculation so if we look at moving our current equity portfolio totally to fixed income we assume 8% return from fixed income then to make money from stocks Nifty should be higher than 11988 and based on the current earnings trajectory we do not feel that Nifty will sustain much higher than 11988 or to round it off let us take the level of around 12000 so if you are parking money on the index then we do not see much returns beyond 12000 even in the best of circumstances in this situation we are assuming that all the moving parts like Brent crude oil (which we see now moving within the trading range of 69-52 Brent crude oil levels mentioned), election results and other variables play out perfectly as the market wants it to and even in that best case scenario going much above 12000 levels on the index will be a challenging task and hence we are saying that there are stock wise opportunities and look at stocks where either deep value has emerged or look for stocks that are in clear trend and invest or trade in them. From a Nifty Futures stand point we do not see broad portfolios making much money from current levels (again we are saying please understand this correctly there are individual select names which will make money but traders and investors will have to be very nimble footed in order to make money in them) so the game will be stock specific and it will be better to look at names where deep value is present or look at names where individual stocks will have tactical advantage because of certain factors or events playing out in the economy or the market
So in a nut shell based on my Nifty prediction we feel that 2019 will be a far more challenging year for stock portfolio returns from current levels for those who have to make money it will have to be through nonstop churning of portfolio and trading in and out and moving in at the right time and exiting and booking out at the right time. We don’t feel from a broad stock market perspective 2019 will be a buy and hold year so keep that in mind. There are some stocks and select names where money will be made but we cannot say this for the broader Indian stock market.
Good Trading to you!