Nifty 27th March 2018
Nifty Futures today started a pullback along expected lines. Most of the traders were very bearish on Friday night and were bearish for the past week or so after 10141 was taken out also the open interest positions that were indicating massive short build up so the general consensus trade was to sell on rise or any kind of a bounce or even sell any intraday rally but regular readers of this website are well aware that we had recommended our clients to cover all shorts and avoid fresh short in fact we did take some long trading positions and will be trading in and out as deemed fit and that strategy is working very well as of now. Overall as we have guided in our previous post also that though overall from a longer term time frame we are not currently bullish on the Indian stock market or Indian equities as an asset class but having said that in the immediate term to near term we do not recommend being bearish or taking short positions or even exiting stuck portfolio longs as those who are stuck in portfolio longs or trading would get better prices to exit stuck long positions so that advice is also playing out perfectly.
Part of what we recommended to our clients.
3/20/18, 11:36 AM – Glen Drago: Late last evening many of you were calling me and were totally in panic but as we told you that as of now there is nothing to worry so let me explain the scenario to you. As of now the janta trade or the trade that everyone seems to be doing is that sell at any price and everyone has the same target of 9800-9700 for now. First and foremost not only those people who are currently active in the Indian stock market have this view but even passive investors have this view as of yesterday evening so the point being that the entire market is on the same side of the trade and this view is actually confirmed by the Open Interest data and whenever we have everyone doing and thinking the same thing that event will not happen at least that is what history of the Indian and global stock markets have shown us so please do not bother about where the immediate term markets make a bottom the important point is that we do not see any significant downside from current prices immediately. Longer term we remain very bearish but from an near and immediate term perspective we do not expect any major downside and we see prices heading back to ——— spot Nifty levels mentioned. As and when we see the last leg of the down move coming to an end we will add and we will be trading on the long side for the next few points till the area of ——-. Please keep in mind that the area of —– could even extend to —– so it could even extend but for now let us work with the area of —–.
In a nut shell the first round of the decline is almost done (we could see just one more round of fall late today or tomorrow) and now we expect a good retracement of the fall that we have seen from around 11171 to around the 10000 levels so we now see this area being retraced back to around – which could extend to spot Nifty levels also but keep in mind that does not mean that the bearish cycle is over there is still a long way to go for this bearish cycle to get over both in terms of time and in terms of price so if you have any portfolio or investments which are stuck you must use this coming pullback to exit longs and get into cash from an investment stand point what damage has been done in some of the midcaps is not even the beginning of the beginning so lot more damage in price will take place there so better strategy will be to exit investments if you are stuck or holding any. So like in present scenario when no one can understand why we are trading for the pullback in a very similar manner when this pullback would be ending no one will understand why we are exiting longs and why we would be taking some kind of spread trades which would seem a bit complex for beginners so be patient and over the next 2-3 weeks enjoy the pullback. From an time cycle perspective there are turning dates starting tomorrow for a few days and a near term bottom will be made around them.
3/20/18, 11:39 AM – Glen Drago: if anything else to do will update
3/20/18, 12:21 PM – Glen Drago: If there is consolidation around current levels for 1-2 hours and before 3pm takes out 10171 spot Nifty levels then bottom will be in place and we will have confirmation of moving towards – spot Nifty levels mentioned
3/20/18, 12:22 PM – Glen Drago: Will keep updating if anything needs to be done
3/20/18, 2:51 PM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as
3/20/18, 2:51 PM – Glen Drago: Told
3/21/18, 9:08 AM – Glen Drago: Gm
3/21/18, 9:08 AM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
3/21/18, 10:12 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty move past 10240 spot before 11.30 am will confirm the bottom and we see 10300 today if 10240 spot Nifty level is taken out today before 11.30 am
3/21/18, 10:12 AM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
3/21/18, 10:13 AM – Glen Drago: will keep updating if anything needs to be done
3/21/18, 10:13 AM – Glen Drago: as of now just hold
3/21/18, 10:19 AM – Glen Drago: Mercury the planet which rules communication will be going retrograde in the coming 48 hours and as a result of that, we expect misinformation and rumors to start floating thereby creating sharp zigzag movements in the coming days. We could see zigzag movements in the market every few days and we will be trading in and out of the market during this phase. Buy and hold or sell and hold will not be a good strategy to adopt during this phase
3/21/18, 11:16 AM – Glen Drago: if anything else to do will update
3/21/18, 11:16 AM – Glen Drago: as of ow just hold positions
3/21/18, 11:16 AM – Glen Drago: as of now just hold positions
3/22/18, 9:00 AM – Glen Drago: Gm
3/22/18, 9:00 AM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
3/22/18, 9:00 AM – Glen Drago: Will update if anything needs to be done
3/22/18, 12:07 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold positions as told
3/22/18, 12:07 PM – Glen Drago: if anything to do will update
3/22/18, 12:08 PM – Glen Drago: we don’t see any downside sustaining for now but zigzag movement will keep taking place and moves are not going to be fast in either direction hence we have sold 2 parts in options to get benefited from time value perspective
3/22/18, 3:05 PM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
3/22/18, 4:47 PM – Glen Drago: Crude oil sell between 4250-4280 SL 4344 Target 4000-3800
3/22/18, 4:47 PM – Glen Drago: Please note crude oil trade is an high risk trade
3/22/18, 5:09 PM – Glen Drago: Good Evening Nifty Update http://www.mallavv.com/sgx-nifty/nifty-futures-23rd-march-2018.html
3/23/18, 12:44 AM – Glen Drago: Most of you are wondering that although from a medium-term perspective we are so bearish what has made us move from near-term bullish?
Well, there are many parts to this answer so please read carefully. First are the sentiment indicators. Just a few days back when Nifty was around everyone was very clear that Nifty is heading towards 10800 (total consensus) and now If you talk to any trader or investor on the street today every one of them will tell you the level between 1000-10100 is a major support for the Nifty and every single one of them will tell you that if we do manage to break the 10100-10000 zone then everyone has a target for Nifty between 9700-9800 (Once again total consensus). Now all our old clients are aware that whenever everyone is expecting the same outcome and has a same level and is positioned in the market in the same way that will never take place because statistically 90% plus people lose money in the market so if everyone is so bearish now after a 10% drop from the top (we are not suggesting that there is any major bull cycle nor that we are gunho on Indian equities) but if everyone has woken up suddenly after a significant fall and every single one of them is on the same page and same trade that does not take place. Actually, as an experiment, it is good for you to call a few friends who trade in the Indian stock market and ask them the same. Market kya lagta hai? Please call and ask them and see what answers you get. Please do that tomorrow first thing in the morning before the market opens. We are sure you will get the point that we are trying to communicate.
Time cycle bottom around. Nifty made a high on 29th Jan 2018 and started a sharp fall from there. As per our time cycle system, we see a near-term bottom formation cycle between 21-24th March 2018 as per that cycle so we do expect this cycle which has been playing out perfectly since years will also once again prove that it is a very important cycle.
Astro Indicators show that a short-term bottom is around. In our website update and on the whats app chat we did highlight what Mercury Retrograde does. Today Mercury will go retrograde and as per our historical back testing this has a 80% correlation to short-term bottoms especially if markets are falling hard into this period in an orbit of 4 TD so if we do see Mercury retrograde has most of the time arrested the fall and has post that given an average bounce of 5-7% so even this Astro cycle is perfectly getting aligned with the overall current scenario.
Wave count. Many were worried last week about the importance of 10141 and how the breach of that low has opened levels all the way up to 9800 or 9700. An important point here that most people ignore. It is not only the level that is important but also the manner in which that level is taken out. So as a rule if that level actually is broken it has to be with significant volumes present but that was not the case when 10141 was taken out. Also as per Neo wave and Elliot wave rules the bottom or that level has to be taken out in lesser time. So if we see from a perspective of 10141 is it significant or rather was the level significant then let us see if there were volumes present? No there was no spike in volume when 10141 was taken out. Was the speed of breaking 10141 greater than the previous move? No, even that criteria was not meet and hence 10141 lost all significance. Further momentum indicators like RSI, TRIN, and few others are not having much space for moving lower directly from here to adjust these levels there has to be a significant bounce in the market.
So the bottom line. Are we heading for 9800 or 9700? No, we do not think so not because we don’t think so the facts and analytical data does not support 9800 or 9700 theory.
So where are we heading now? And where do we see the near term bottom? As we have explained that we see multiple leading indicators that show us that the bottom will be done in the next 24-48 hours and we see Nifty heading towards the – area. We at this present juncture cannot rule out Nifty even extending towards the area but for now, let us just see how the bottom is made. We do not expect any significant downside to sustain though gap down is likely today and post that we could see sharp move on the higher side (post the open) as janta is expected to add to their shorts on a break of 10050 in the morning trade. So once the bears are trapped we see a zigzag move which will be a choppy move and we could see a diametric pattern heading towards the – area which means that move will keep giving pullbacks every 1-4 trading days. So it could be a move to 10300 then a pullback to 10200 then again move higher to 10450 some pullback and so on but overall will keep heading higher.
We will be buying 4th part around the 10000 area and if deemed fit may even take BTST positions tomorrow morning so please come prepared and on time.
Good Night and God bless.
3/23/18, 9:03 AM – Glen Drago: Gm
3/23/18, 9:03 AM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
3/23/18, 9:54 AM – Glen Drago: will update if anything has to be done
3/23/18, 11:06 AM – Glen Drago: Intraday could dip again to 9950 spot Nifty we will add 4th part at or around that point
3/23/18, 11:07 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold positions as told
3/23/18, 11:07 AM – Glen Drago: Will keep updating if anything needs to be done
3/23/18, 11:51 AM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
3/23/18, 11:51 AM – Glen Drago: Wait fr msg to add 4th part
3/23/18, 11:51 AM – Glen Drago: Will keep updating
3/23/18, 11:51 AM – Glen Drago: Buy 4 the part at cmp
3/23/18, 11:52 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty Fut buy 4th part at cmp
3/23/18, 11:52 AM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty 4th part bought
3/23/18, 11:53 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty Fut Hold 2 parts longs Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
3/23/18, 11:54 AM – Glen Drago: We see Nifty ending first round of downside that started at 11171 now and expect a pullback rally towards – spot Nifty levels mentioned
3/23/18, 11:55 AM – Glen Drago: Since Mercury is retrograde now we expect statements on trade war and other news flow to keep changing from time to time
3/23/18, 11:56 AM – Glen Drago: As we mentioned before Mercury rules communication and retrograde means miscommunication so lots of false statements will keep getting corrected from time to time
3/23/18, 11:56 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty Fut Hold 2 parts longs Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
3/23/18, 11:58 AM – Glen Drago: If anything else to do will update
3/23/18, 1:38 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty book 4th part at cmp and hold 3 parts as told
3/23/18, 1:38 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty 4th part booked
3/23/18, 1:38 PM – Glen Drago: Wait for msg to buy 4th part again
3/23/18, 1:38 PM – Glen Drago: Will keep updating if anything has to be done
3/23/18, 1:39 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty Fut Hold 1 part long Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
3/23/18, 1:39 PM – Glen Drago: Will keep updating if anything has to be done
3/23/18, 2:13 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty March Fut 1 part rollover to April Fut
3/23/18, 2:13 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty rollover to April done
3/23/18, 2:14 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty April Fut Hold 1 part long Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
3/23/18, 2:14 PM – Glen Drago: Will keep updating if anything has to be done
3/23/18, 2:32 PM – Glen Drago: Nitty buy 4th part
3/23/18, 2:32 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty 4th active
3/23/18, 4:42 PM – Glen Drago: Crude oil hold 1 part Short as told
3/26/18, 9:06 AM – Glen Drago: Gm
3/26/18, 9:06 AM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
3/26/18, 10:23 AM – Glen Drago: If anything else to do will update
3/26/18, 11:01 AM – Sonal Tushar Mehta removed from the list
3/26/18, 1:40 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold positions as told
3/26/18, 1:40 PM – Glen Drago: If anything else to do will update
3/26/18, 1:41 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty April Fut Hold 2 parts long Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
3/26/18, 1:41 PM – Glen Drago: If anything else to do will update
3/26/18, 3:18 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty 4th part book
3/26/18, 3:18 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty 4th part booked at cmp
3/26/18, 3:18 PM – Glen Drago: Hold remaining 3 parts nifty as told
3/26/18, 3:19 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty April Fut Hold 1 part long Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
3/26/18, 3:19 PM – Glen Drago: If anything else to do will update
Good Trading To You!