SGX Nifty Futures
(Change Vs Today’s Nifty Futures (NSE) Closing)
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Nifty Futures 10th Jan 2017
Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty has been trading in a range of 8300-7900 for the past few trading days. As per our analysis we once again reiterate that near term we do not see any significant downside but in the longer term we see that markets will eventually fall towards the final target of 5872 but keep in mind that we could still see some good up move even from current levels before that downside move starts so selling now or exiting portfolio around current prices is not recommended as per our analysis. We see that investors who did not exit at higher levels will get good chance to exit at higher levels and from a traders point of view we do not see short selling to make much money for the near term, sure you could see some volatility starting in a few days but we do not see prices falling significantly and more importantly we do not see prices sustaining on the downside in the near term. The sentiment indicators show us that the overall sentiment is exactly inverse of that of 8800. At that point in time, everyone was bullish and everyone was very convinced that 9500 or 9200 will come and everyone was buying on dips. Now the situation has turned inverse and it is that no one wants to buy (despite getting prices much cheaper than the prices they were getting at 8800) everyone is very clear that prices are heading towards the 7600 area and everyone is very clear that the first 3-4 months of this year will be bad for stocks and that it is only in the second half will a pick up be seen. When the market sentiment is so bearish and everyone is thinking exactly on the same lines we have noted based on historical back testing that that situation has never played out. So since we are very clear that future is nothing but a repeat of the past we are very clear that what the entire market is expecting will not happen not that the collapse will not take place sure the collapse will take place taking Nifty to 5872 but before that happens the bearish positions will be forced to wind up and we could even see some euphoria in the markets so please keep that in mind.
Sugar will continue to do very well in the next few months and we reiterate that Renuka Ugar and Bajaj Hind will do very well in the coming time. We see that sugar will perform very well despite the overall negative markets so please keep that in mind. Sugar and the broader markets will not remain connected starting in a few days so although sugar will continue to move higher we could see a totally different trend in the broader market. Please do not look at Nifty charts and compare them to sugar. Please look at sugar in isolation and not in conjunction to the broader markets.
Silver will also do very well in the coming time and on dips we will be buying silver as we see good returns in the coming time. We do expect silver to outperform Gold in this year so if you are a trader seeking higher returns then silver is the metal to watch out for. Gold will do well but silver will do better than Gold in this year. We will tell our clients when to buy Silver as we still see a possibility of minor downside in silver and Gold from current prices.
Crude Oil has performed very well and regular readers and clients of this website are well aware that we have been very bullish on crude oil since 28$/bbl and we do not expect any major weakness in Crude oil in the near term. Any sharp drop in crude will be a good buying opportunity but buying must be done in a staggered manner and at appropriate points please keep that in mind.
Overall we do not see that 2017 will be good for stocks but what everyone is expecting that the fall will begin immediately I do not see that for now before that fall begins we could possibly see some good moves and even stunning moves on the higher side and then the fall will begin. The way the sentiment and the overall market is positioned as of today I do not see that the fall will start anytime soon so until most bears are forced to think twice I do not see the start of a fresh mandi cycle. Also keep in mind that though there could be a stunning move on the higher side the higher side prices also will not sustain for longer duration and sharp reversal will be seen from higher side very quickly. If you are trading only on the basis of this post please use appropriate risk management and then only trade. We have shared our view and we may take trades even contrary to our view for the purpose of tactical trading. Please keep your risk in check and then only trade.
Good Trading To You and have a great 2017.