Nifty Futures 16th Nov 2017

Nifty Futures 16th Nov 2017

Nifty has been moving along expected lines and now is aproaching important zone.  Bank Nifty has been very resilient over the past few days and will be key to watch what Bank Nifty does from here onwards. Dollar gave back some gains today and hence its critical to watch what USDINR pair does over the next few days. Part of what we sent to our clients is enclosed below.

29/10/17, 12:06 PM – glen adv: Crude Oil yesterday has given a beautiful breakout and is now heading for around 3700 in the near term from a dollar price perspective we see that If it is stable above 56$/bbl then crude oil is heading towards 68-70$/bbl in the near to medium term and that will mean a much higher oil import bill for India. Now the Govt will have to rollback the excess taxes which is currently being levied on the petroleum products so that means that fiscal deficit will be moving higher for this year. Rather it will be much higher than the current estimates and that does not argue well for the Indian economy nor does it for consumption because inflation will also rise.
Last week we had the Govt announcing recap of the public sector banks now it is very clear as we have discussed that this will increase the debt to GDP ratio which means that it will lead to higher interest rates, further due to crude oil breakout this will also lead to higher fiscal deficit or higher inflation (in case of partial pass on ) so even in this case we will see higher interest rates effectively so its very important to see how the bond markets behave in the coming next few months.  
US Dollar Index also has given a breakout there by this will put pressure on the USDINR pair. Please understand that INR independently is set to depreciate due to multiplicity of factors but the breakout in the dollar index will add to the pressure on the USDINR pair. We reiterate that we see prices heading towards the 72 area.

07/11/17, 9:09 AM – glen adv: Gm
07/11/17, 9:09 AM – glen adv: Hold silver 1 part long as told
07/11/17, 9:09 AM – glen adv: Whenever we have to add I will update
07/11/17, 1:40 PM – glen adv: Nifty sell 2 parts at cmp
07/11/17, 3:06 PM – glen adv: Hold 2 parts sell
07/11/17, 3:07 PM – glen adv: I will update whenever anything has to be done
07/11/17, 3:07 PM – glen adv: Silver hold 1 part long as told
07/11/17, 3:07 PM – glen adv: Whenever we have to sell more 2 parts will update
07/11/17, 3:07 PM – glen adv: As of now hold 2 parts shorts only
07/11/17, 6:42 PM – glen adv: Will provide update by early morning
08/11/17, 6:52 AM – glen adv: Good Morning,
As we have updated in our previous update that Nifty will reverse based on three instruments. USDINR, Crude and S&P500 as of now we are seeing good traction in crude oil and USDINR today will be very important day. What USDINR will do today will be very important so we will keep updating live during market hours. Once we have final confirmation of the down move starting I will update but as said before also 9300-9000 will be the target area for this move and post that we will see what to do but as things stand now USDINR is the key game changer. If USDINR starts moving higher in a fast manner we could even see prices of this move going towards 75 and in that case Nifty will collapse. The important level to watch for Nifty Futures today is 10372.
08/11/17, 7:47 AM – glen adv: Crude oil has confirmed the breakout and heading for 68-70 dollars per barrel. In terms of Indian crude oil prices we expect prices to firm very sharply due to dual effect of international crude oil prices moving higher and INR depreciation the combination of both these factors will effectively put massive pressure on CAD and effectively lead to rising interest rates. The 1.35 l cr bonds issuance will also put pressure on interest rates too move Higher.
08/11/17, 9:42 AM – glen adv: Will update whenever we have to sell more as of now let the premium game get over
08/11/17, 10:02 AM – glen adv: Nifty Hold 2 Parts shorts as told
08/11/17, 10:02 AM – glen adv: Silver Hold 1 Part Long as told
08/11/17, 10:02 AM – glen adv: whenever we have to add silver I will update
08/11/17, 11:37 AM – glen adv: If Nifty consolidates here and then breaks 10372 Fut then its even better for us
08/11/17, 12:33 PM – glen adv: Nifty sell 1 more part below 10372 fut level
08/11/17, 1:27 PM – glen adv: Ugar sugar mallavv
08/11/17, 1:29 PM – glen adv: Nifty hold 3 parts shorts
08/11/17, 2:42 PM – glen adv: Nifty hold 3 parts shorts
08/11/17, 2:42 PM – glen adv: Nifty hold 3 parts shorts as told
08/11/17, 3:05 PM – glen adv: Nifty Book 3rd Part at CMP for sell done at 10372 Fut Levels mentioned
08/11/17, 3:05 PM – glen adv: Confirmation Nifty Booked 3rd Part
08/11/17, 3:05 PM – glen adv: Nifty Hold 2 Parts positional shorts as told. Trail 2 Parts shorts to 10446 Fut Level Mentioned.
08/11/17, 3:05 PM – glen adv: Ugar Sugar Hold as told
08/11/17, 3:05 PM – glen adv: Silver Hold 1 Part long as told
08/11/17, 3:05 PM – glen adv: will update if anything needs to be done
09/11/17, 9:00 AM – glen adv: Gm
09/11/17, 9:00 AM – glen adv: Hold 2 parts Nifty shorts as told
09/11/17, 9:00 AM – glen adv: Hold silver 1 part long as told
09/11/17, 9:01 AM – glen adv: Will update if anything needs to be done
09/11/17, 9:06 AM – glen adv: Nifty Hold 2 Parts positional shorts as told. Trail 2 Parts shorts to 10446 Fut Level Mentioned.
09/11/17, 12:45 PM – glen adv: If anything else to do will update
09/11/17, 12:45 PM – glen adv: Nifty Hold 2 Parts positional shorts as told. Trail 2 Parts shorts to 10446 Fut Level Mentioned.
09/11/17, 12:45 PM – glen adv: Hold silver 1 part long as told
10/11/17, 8:53 AM – glen adv: Gm
10/11/17, 8:53 AM – glen adv: Nifty Hold 2 Parts positional shorts as told. Trail 2 Parts shorts to 10446 Fut Level Mentioned.
10/11/17, 8:53 AM – glen adv: Silver hold 1 part long as told
10/11/17, 8:53 AM – glen adv: Whenever we have to add I will update
10/11/17, 8:53 AM – glen adv: Ugar sugar continue holding as told
10/11/17, 8:54 AM – glen adv: Reiterate see good time ahead for sugar stocks and ugar in particular
10/11/17, 8:54 AM – glen adv: Whenever we have to sell more in Nifty will guide
10/11/17, 8:54 AM – glen adv: Usdinr movement will be crucial for today
10/11/17, 9:41 AM – glen adv: If anything needs to be done will update
10/11/17, 1:58 PM – glen adv: Nifty has been moving sideways but we see that breakdown from this range is imminent anytime. Break Below 10240 spot Nifty will confirm that all gates for upside are closed and down move towards 9300-9000 area has started. Currently hold 2 parts shorts as told in Nifty fut
10/11/17, 2:00 PM – glen adv: USDINR as per me has started 3rd wave and we are now expecting a sharp move to start in USDINR pair heading towards 72. Move past 65.20 will confirm the same
10/11/17, 2:01 PM – glen adv: Crude Oil continues to remain in a good uptrend and we expect prices to head higher towards the 68-70$/BBL area. Crude Oil will now keep making higher tops and higher bottoms and keep moving higher
10/11/17, 2:02 PM – glen adv: Silver continue holding 1 part long we should start seeing sharp upside in silver any day now.
10/11/17, 2:02 PM – glen adv: whenever we have to add more will update
10/11/17, 2:03 PM – glen adv: Hold Ugar sugar as told
10/11/17, 2:03 PM – glen adv: see good time ahead for the company
10/11/17, 2:03 PM – glen adv: and also for sugar stocks
10/11/17, 2:03 PM – glen adv: Continue holding rem qty in Renuka sugar
12/11/17, 2:33 PM – glen adv: Good Morning,
In our previous updates we had mentioned that Nifty will turn down in the near term due to one of the three factors USDINR, Crude Oil or S&P500. Now we see that USDINR has given a breakout above the 65.20 area and we expect USDINR to start catching speed on the upside and head towards 72. Please keep in mind that I do not mean that 72 will come in 2-3 days but USDINR will keep moving higher with speed and keep making higher tops and higher bottoms and eventually reach the 72 area. This is not the final target for USDINR pair and the final target for USDINR pair will be much more higher but for now let us just watch for the 3rd wave that will be taking place in the USDINR pair. USDINR pair must be stable above 65.20 that is important.
Crude Oil will also keep moving higher and eventually will reach the target of 68-72. The pattern in Crude Oil is suggesting that it will breach even 73-75 on the higher side and reach 84. Yes that is possible but for now let us work with a target area of 68-72 zone.  Crude oil will keep making higher tops and higher bottoms and will remain a buy on dips or panic but if we get a low risk trade then only we will enter crude oil from a trading perspective.
Nifty  selling will be done in low risk area and on bounce backs. Those who want to buy puts be patient we will guide when and where to enter puts as we need momentum to make money in puts and till bounce backs are coming momentum will not be seen on the lower side so put buying will be advised but be patient for now. 10446 Fut level will remain our reversal area for the down move which means that another pullback is possible if 10446 Fut level is breached. We will keep guiding live as per what and when to enter trades.
Silver there is minor support at around the 38700-38400 area. On dips and panic we will be adding silver. Silver we maintain our bullish stance.
Good trading to you and enjoy your weekend.
13/11/17, 8:59 AM – glen adv: Gm
13/11/17, 8:59 AM – glen adv: Nifty Hold 2 Parts positional shorts as told. Trail 2 Parts shorts to 10446 Fut Level Mentioned.
13/11/17, 8:59 AM – glen adv: Whenever we have to add positions I will update
13/11/17, 8:59 AM – glen adv: Silver hold 1 part long as told
13/11/17, 9:00 AM – glen adv: Whenever we have to buy more silver will guide
13/11/17, 9:00 AM – glen adv: Ugar sugar continue holding as toldn
13/11/17, 9:00 AM – glen adv: We see good time ahead for the company
13/11/17, 9:00 AM – glen adv: Usdinr will be key in the next few trading days will keep updating
13/11/17, 11:44 AM – glen adv: Hold positions as told
13/11/17, 11:44 AM – glen adv: Will update if anything needs to be done
13/11/17, 1:45 PM – glen adv: 10240 spot important level the greater the consolidation here the better.
13/11/17, 1:54 PM – glen adv: Usdinr has confirmed the start of wave 3 heading for 72
13/11/17, 1:54 PM – glen adv: Even could eventually head for 86
13/11/17, 3:09 PM – glen adv: Nifty has broken the 10240 spot area level. Now we have confirmation for ()area, however, we will sell more at low-risk points or on bounce backs so be patient and wait for more selling msg
13/11/17, 3:25 PM – glen adv: Dollar lavvvvvvvv
14/11/17, 9:10 AM – glen adv: Gm
14/11/17, 9:10 AM – glen adv: Hold positions as told
14/11/17, 10:07 AM – glen adv: Silver hold 1 part long as told. Will add more on dips. Very good time cycle is expected in silver in coming days
14/11/17, 10:07 AM – glen adv: Ugar sugar hold as told
14/11/17, 10:07 AM – glen adv: Nifty Hold 2 Parts positional shorts as told. Trail 2 Parts shorts to 10446 Fut Level Mentioned.
14/11/17, 10:07 AM – glen adv: On bounce we will sell more
14/11/17, 10:07 AM – glen adv: Or on low risk entry point
15/11/17, 9:07 AM – glen adv: Gm
15/11/17, 9:07 AM – glen adv: Nifty Hold 2 Parts positional shorts as told. Trail 2 Parts shorts to 10446 Fut Level Mentioned.
15/11/17, 9:07 AM – glen adv: Will update of anything needs to be done
15/11/17, 9:47 AM – glen adv: Nifty Book Profit in 1 Part shorts done at 10405 Fut level
15/11/17, 9:47 AM – glen adv: confirmation Nifty booked 1 part at cmp
15/11/17, 9:48 AM – glen adv: Hold Nifty 1 Part short done at 10405 with trialing SL 10446 Nov Fut level mentioned
15/11/17, 9:48 AM – glen adv: will keep updating if anything needs to be done
15/11/17, 9:50 AM – glen adv: We have Only 1 Part Short in Nifty Fut as of now. On any bounce or low risk entry point we will add shorts as trend is down but bounce is likely
15/11/17, 9:50 AM – glen adv: Ugar sugar hold as told
15/11/17, 9:50 AM – glen adv: Silver continue holding 1 part longs as told
15/11/17, 9:51 AM – glen adv: Silver has been consolidating at around current prices and will guide when and where to add more longs as of now just hold 1 part long in silver
15/11/17, 9:51 AM – glen adv: will update if anything needs to be done
15/11/17, 9:57 AM – glen adv: Nifty book profits totally
15/11/17, 9:57 AM – glen adv: confirmation no open positions in Nifty
15/11/17, 9:58 AM – glen adv: Nifty totally booked
15/11/17, 9:58 AM – glen adv: when and where to sell again will update
15/11/17, 9:59 AM – () need to see how the current move is progressing
15/11/17, 9:59 AM – glen adv: will keep updating if anything needs to be done
15/11/17, 2:15 PM – glen adv: Those holding crude oil longs trail to 3579