Nifty Futures 21st Nov 2016

SGX Nifty Futures

LTP   8,449.50   +16.50 +0.20% High 8,444.00 Low 8,384.00 (Change Vs Today’s Nifty Futures (NSE) Closing)

SGX Nifty

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Nifty Futures 21st Nov 2016

Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty continued their correction after giving a faster retracement over the last falling segment on 9-10th Nov (The previous falling segment top was at 8560 spot Nifty levels mentioned) and post that sharp rise we have been seeing a steady decline but what matters to us is that the speed of the decline with respect to the rise is much more slower and hence we do not see this wave heading lower down straight from here in the near term.






As per our analysis our overall view remains the same. Longer term we remain bearish for targets of 5872 and in the immediate term we do not see the wave heading down straight from here so in our analysis we see a very choppy move taking place on both sides. We see sharp up moves and sharp down moves but overall near term direction will remain up and overall longer term direction will remain down so trading in and out should be done.  Please keep in mind that from a investment point of view this will not be a buy and hold game it will be a trade in and then out game but it is not recommended to buy stocks at current prices from a longer term perspective.





In the near term the Banks are getting deposits at such a rapid pace that Reserve Bank of India will be forced to cut interest rates by at least 50 bps immediately and all the Banks are expected to drop their deposit rates and lending rates also by around 50-75 Bps in the near term and we see this news event coming out very soon as Banks are being flushed with deposits and even if the account holder wants to withdraw cash from his account he is not allowed to do so or rather there is far less cash in the system than what is needed so net effect is Banks will be forced to pay interest to all those depositors so that will in the near term boost the market sentiment from a news flow stand point not that we track or follow news but as per our understanding a 0.50 Bps rate cut is coming from the RBI sooner than expected by most people.






SBI yesterday did lower their deposit rates by 0.15 bps and we expect all banks to cut their deposit and PLR (Prime Lending Rate) anywhere between 0.50-0.75  Bps in the near term.

Ugar sugar posted bad set of numbers but we still remain very bullish on Ugar sugar and if you have bought Ugar sugar below 38 then we do not see any reason for worry. On declines short term investors can buy and hold Ugar sugar. Renuka sugar too has corrected and the results this time have been good. We expect that Renuka sugar will continue posting better set of numbers in the coming time and we remain very bullish on Renuka sugar also. Overall the sugar space will remain very bullish and companies like Ugar who have good sugar stock with them will continue to do well. The sugar shortfall is severe and in southern India there will be no sugar cane to crush beyond Jan 15th so we do expect sugar prices to keep moving higher from here too.

Good Trading To You!

101 thoughts on “Nifty Futures 21st Nov 2016

      1. Sir,
        This is a private message to you. I also wanted to bring to your notice above thing, some people are defaming you and your website on stock market social forums. I am sure you would have already taken a not of it. It’s sad side of social media that anyone can be easily defamed without any concrete proof.

        1. I know and all people who are clients and regular readers of this website know very well that whatever has been written is false and not true. There are enough records available on this website which is in the public domain to prove otherwise but it is indeed sad that inspite of you knowing the facts you have not replied or represented the facts of the matter.

          1. I know Sir, many false accusations were present, I did update the true facts as per my read of this blog for last 1year around.

            Regards
            Anpat2015

    1. Mr Pais, No one is compulsory telling your to read this bolg. If you are not comfortable not read blog at all..If you r still reading indicates u r having personal interest in it…
      In today fast moving world..no one have enough time to read wasterful information…

      Dear Glen sir..
      My sincere request to you not to authorise these kind of fullish comment…
      It hampers genium n needy reader mind set…

      Rigved

    2. Hi pais,
      Why you are making a joke of yourself by posting such pathetic comments here? People are smart enough here to understand who is genuine and who is doing timepass.

      Regards
      Anpat2015

  1. Thank you, sir for updates! Though I am not paid member, but regular visitor of your site, I was eagerly waiting for your post since 15th.. Some of my friend have been asked by their brokers to take positive positions for Nov & Dec series for targets of 85k & 92k+ respectively. Is it happening?

  2. HI SIR
    SIR SOME QUESTION RELATING TO RENUKA SUGAR IN RESPECT OF YOUR NIFTY FUTURE UPDATE DATED 21/11/2016
    SIR YOU SAID ” IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO BUY STOCKS AT CURRENT PRICE FROM LONGER TERM PERSPECTIVE ”
    SO SIR PLEASE ADVICE WHAT TO DO ABOUT RENUKA SUGAR YOU ARE NOT PREDICTING BIG TARGET PLEAS ADVICE SIR

  3. What is your upside target now in this upmove? Regarding MSL you mentioned some internal news based buying will happen however actually there is reverse selling happening which dragged stock almost 500 points down. Any specific issue in this stock?

  4. Sir,
    This is a private message to you to inform that some people are defaming you and your website on stock market social forums. I am sure you would have already taken a note of it. This is a biggest disadvantage of social media that anybody can be defamed without any concrete proof.

  5. Dear Mallav,

    I have one suggestion.
    Multi bagger stock you have suggeated to your subscribers a week or ten days back and now you can reveal to your blog readers.

    You need to give good tips some times in the open forum also…otherwise what is the use foe the bloggers who are interestingly going through your blog?

  6. Sir, as you mentioned, the speed of the decline with respect to the rise is much more slower and hence we do not see this wave heading lower down straight from here in the near term.
    Contrary, you also said that longer term we remain bearish.
    How can this be possible?
    As per my understanding, if last segment of fall is retraced in faster time, it is bullish sign. If we see last segment of rise is retraced in faster time, we can be bearish for medium term.

  7. The wave count differs person to person and if anyone is so confident of the counts and has been wrong since few months means shows the lack of knowing wave nature.

  8. Sir actually i regularly have look in your blog. I m trading in nifty only. What i am trading only on my own risk. But my one question to u is that .. before u were saying that sharp dawn fall will come any time. And now you r saying that dawn fall will be slaw and chwpy up move might come. So you r saying two side.
    And Can u pls tell me how much time it will take nifty to come 7500 levle as per yr opinion

    1. 1) Final target 5872
      2) Sharp pullbacks will come as counter trend moves
      3) Sharp falls will also be seen
      4) Near term dont see much downside, longer term very bearish

  9. Sirji, the most powerful multibagger, I think, is tatapower and sail. Tgt is 550 to 900 in the former and 477 in the latter, albeit after 5 – 6 years. I am silently accumulating them at every declines and selling at the upper end of D.C. or B.B. or K.C. since last three months with huge success.
    Sirji, it pains me to read malicious messages against this pious site and pious person like You ( with capital Y). Sir, why don’t You block off these ill-willed messages?

    Cement sector, especially indiacem, will do excellently. Also Dhfl, Tataglobal, Tataelxsi, Tatapower, Jublfood, voltas, tvs motor, Sail, Nifty, idea , renuka and ugar sugar will do well. Ugar has given 3 – 4 falling windows successively which makes it luscious now at every fall.
    These are according to my studies.

  10. Sir, Very nice analysis, ‘Near term don’t see much downside, longer term very bearish.’
    Can you please share medium term analysis, for 3-4 months?

      1. Thanks sir for your inputs.
        Would you reconsidering your near term bullishness on Nifty if Nifty breaks 7930/7800? Nifty looks oversold but FII’s are continuously selling.

        Regards
        Anapat2015

  11. This upside will not cross 8550.Take ur chance.
    Analysts write and show counts on their site whether public understands or not which s missing on your side.

  12. Hello Sir,
    Do you think we should add more MSL, Renuka, Renuka and Bajaj Hind at CMP or more correction expected?

    Regards,
    Dheeraj

  13. Sirji, as I had mentioned many of the stocks have appreciated, esp. Indiacem and sail by 5% & 2.5% respectively. Sir 1 lot of nifty today gave 80*75=6000 profit whereas one lot of sail gave 12000 profit.
    Sirji, there are about 8 to 10 lucrative scrips for tomorrow ( btst done at 3.25 pm), at the last candle of 5 mins, like dhfl sail tataelxsi idea relcap relinfra tata power and tataglobal to name a few but the most profitable btst would be condor as RSI 5 superoversold.
    Sirji, this is according to my studies. I m not a professional analyst. I do my trades only if I m able to hold it for any time, and pyramiding at every 10% adverse trade, with great success. Still holding IOC short of 302.
    Sirji, I anticipate a vicious bounce upside this week till SAR touching.

  14. Hi Mallavv,

    Interesting blog site. I am visiting this for the first time and I am in touch with several others who write regular blogs on the market. What according to you is the upside in Nifty in the near term and what is ‘near term’ in your definition? Also, what is the calculation behind giving a steep downside target of over 2000 points from here?
    Regards,
    Shantanu

  15. Is there any reason for ugar to fall down on daily basis and touvhing lower circuit everyday.

    Where do you see the this downfall heading.?

  16. Sir,
    Added more ugar sugar today. Now holding at 40, 36, 29 and 25 levels. As its in downtrend currently I think we may even see 19-20 levels in ugar sugar. Will be adding more around that levels. As per astro cycles, what period you expect to be best period for Sugar companies where there valuations will shoot up in crazy manner?

    Regard
    anpat2015

      1. Sir, as per astro cycles, what period you expect to be best period for Sugar companies where there valuations will shoot up in crazy manner?

        Regards
        Anpat2015

  17. UGAR as per retracement should come to 22.50 to 22.72 (wkly BB low) but no one can predict the H or L of any scrip. Now its good level to buy & personally I m ancipating prices as follows:43 49 56 69 and close above 70 can show, in the longer term, 125 to 168 172 225

  18. Glen sir,
    Kindly through more light on your near term upside, the timeline and the near about target. I understand the fall has stopped but no steep upside seen from here on as of now.

  19. Hi sir today after testing so much pensions renuka give good up move with volum sir I will tell u one thing that I am regular reader of your valuable advice and I will tell u one thing by heart you are having so much pensions that ever investors has to built for good investor and important thing you replay every message answer with so much respected I selute you sir once agin I will tell you that you are genius

  20. Dear Mallav,

    With reference to your prediction on correction of 30% of home prices….seems to be that you are having some kind of sense that this kind steps will be taken by the Government. ….. That is why though the market was going up to u stood on your words so firmly….

  21. Sir,
    Congrats as Nifty did show a sharp bounce back as per your anticipation.
    FII have been net sellers for past month. They are selling huge but DII are supporting markets as they are buying huge. Do you see FII turning towards buying side in the coming time as without FII support it would be very difficult for markets to rally upwards?

    Regards
    anpat2015

  22. SIRJI.
    i am expecting good bounce back in these oversold scrips
    Wockhardt
    Adani Enterprise
    Jubilant Foodworks
    Bata
    McLeods
    Irb
    Icil
    M&M
    Ashok Leyland
    Bhel
    Concor
    Cummins
    This is according to my studies. Not of any analyst. Overbought scrips are Hindalco, HindZinc, PFC REC and can be shorted as STBT on every rise, I feel.
    Markets are a traders delight nowadays since we can buy on dips, ans sell on rises as and when RSI 5 becomes OS or OB respectively.
    Acc to my studies Nifty Levels can be
    8168 8287 8448 8475 8495 8638 on the upside.
    Sirji, my ultimate aim to write on this blog is just to help all fellow investors to reap money from the market, for which, obviously, everyone is trying very hard. Please kindly correct me whenever I M wrong.
    Sir, wishing U a very happy trading and all the success.

  23. Many blog are predicting nifty may take a sharp dip after 15 December. What are your Astro views . I think earlier you have given 5872 target for December 2016.

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