SGX Nifty Futures
(Change Vs Today’s Nifty Futures (NSE) Closing)
Nifty Futures 24th April 2017
Part of the update what we have sent to our clients today.
Mercury rules communication and as of now it is retrograde and will remain so until 3rd May it will keep providing lots of false information during this time so it is better not to conclude anything from the news flow for the time being.
Sugar stocks are doing well today and we reiterate that we see a good time for the sugar sector ahead. Once again we are saying we do not know the news flow that will create fast rise of sugar sector but all we know is that prices of sugar stocks will rally and we still recommend holding Renuka sugar, Ugar sugar and Bajaj Hindustan rather most of the sugar pack can be held as the bullish moves will be seen in most of the counters. Please do not mix our Nifty view and Sugar view because regardless of what happens in Nifty sugar stocks will move higher in its own trajectory.
Silver too we have been very bullish and on any major panic it will be good to buy silver as we see higher side targets of 53000-56000 in this year but we will be buying only on a panic or otherwise we may do a slow accumulation of silver. When to buy where to buy and how much to buy we will keep guiding our clients. If you trading only on the basis of this post please use appropriate risk management and trade.
Of whatever results have been reported we do not see any of numbers that are good. All the numbers are bad along expected lines and we do not see many corporate reporting any good set of numbers in this season. IN fact, we could see some companies guiding for lower growth in the next year. Bottom line Hefty valuations, Low growth, Rising inflation scenario all this does not argue well for stocks. We reiterate our target of 5872.
Part of what we sent to our clients in this week.
we see Nifty starting the collapse cycle so please keep that in mind. The street and every news channel and all newspapers will talk about massive bullishness but none of that will happen as per our calculations. We see a major crash cycle for all major markets we reiterate we see 5872. I know it is very difficult to believe what I am saying now but keep in mind that all my targets have been surpassed not just achieved. All my targets have not only been meet but been surpassed so when I say 5872 keep in mind that as per the historical target analysis we have always overshot the target and never it has only been achieved but before that collapse cycle. Keep patience and hold as told. When to accelerate and sell more we will guide you and when to start doing blind short trades that too we will tell you but for the time being keep cool and hold as told.
In the near term what is taking place today is very similar to what happened last week. Hold positions as told.
One of the most important points is to remember that sugar and Nifty will not show any co relation and sugar stocks will keep moving higher in a different trajectory.
With regards to the current earnings season IT stocks will have bad set of numbers, Banks will also have higher NPA’s and lesser percentage of NII as loan growth is very low. The credit off take that is being shown as 5.1% is around 3.8% as per our estimates and with inflation being significantly higher than RBI’s 5 percent trajectory we do not see the RBI being able to cut rates rather once again keep in mind another inflation number above 6 percent the Gov will be forced to raise rates outside the policy. Crude has been moving higher now and the dollar too is expected to move towards 72 all this will add to inflation in the coming months so RBI rate hike is also a very big possibility in the next 2 months. Bottom line is we don’t see Banks giving good numbers. Telecom will have a negative set of numbers thanks to Jio. No one is making any money and it is now very similar to the airline industry where no one is making good money but no one has the pricing power also and since the game is now being played with some major funding from these corporate we do not see any earnings possibility from the telecom sector for the next 12 months at least so another sector is ruled out from earnings growth. Infra companies don’t look great either their debt problems will make sure they don’t grow more than 5-7 %. Cement will be flat to negative as per our estimates. So baring RIL which could do some dressing of their balance sheet I don’t see earnings growth coming from any sector in the Nifty. If there is no earnings growth there is no bull market and all this at current prices and valuations and rollout of GST in coming months means further no earnings growth this year. The rise in Service Tax from 15 to 18 percent will be inflationary and reduce demand in the near term.
No earnings growth, high valuations, euphoria on the street all these are clear signs.
Good Trading To You!