Nifty Futures 2nd Nov 2016

SGX Nifty Futures

LTP   10,940.00   +26.00 +0.24% High 11,041.50 Low 11,001.00 (Change Vs Today’s Nifty Futures (NSE) Closing)

SGX Nifty

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Nifty Futures 2nd Nov 2016

Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty today was trading within a range along expected lines after moving higher during the day Nifty closed flat.

As per our analysis we have been saying that we do not expect Nifty Futures to move much higher from here and we have also said that the fall will also be with their fair share of pullbacks. So markets are moving as per expected lines. We are once again reiterating the point that pullbacks will come and go but overall the trend will remain down with a negative bias and we do not see prices sustaining on the higher side.
On the downside as we have mentioned last time a important support of 8250 is in place and till that support area is touched we do not expect any sharp movements and even if sharp movements do take place they will be confined to the trading range as told.

The important event that is coming up is the FOMC meeting on 2nd Nov 2016 so we just have one more trading day to go before we know if the FED moves or does not move and most market participants are focused on what FED will do but we do not think that whatever the FED will do will on 2nd Nov will have much impact.

The first scenario is that FED will hike rates by 0.25 Bps and surely the market is not prepared for that and hence we will see a sharp risk off trade globally.  The second scenario is that FED will guide strongly for a Dec rate hike so the market will not wait for Dec but will start preparing for the rise in interest rates and still we see a risk off not only in the Indian stock markets but globally. 

The dollar index is indicating that smart money has been buying the green back since the last FOMC meeting and when we look at multiple leading indicators which are based on Dollar Index, Gold and Crude we see that the smart money is expecting either a rate hike this time or they are expecting a very strong guidance for Dec 2016 rate hike of 0.25 bps so please keep that in mind.

We see too many head winds in the coming time and we do not see stocks as a asset class doing very well in the time to come.  MSL some big institutional guys are buying for some key persons who are very well known to the management of the company. We also pick up information that some big corporate announcement is in the making soon so do keep that stock on your radar.

Good Trading To You!

24 thoughts on “Nifty Futures 2nd Nov 2016

  1. In case the bearish outlook scenario comes true, it will not give a chance to enter short trades. The only way is buy puts & sell calls . Every one is aware of figures like 8500/8550 .The million dollar question is how to trade once 8500 is breached overnight.Once bulls take losses in f&o, they will dump cash stock

  2. Indian dii& some big bull bullish in indian market.why fii exiting short.fii export 8650-8750 .when export over we see sharp fall .sahi hai n sirjee?

  3. As per Mallav, sugar prices should have touched 60-70 rs, but his prediction has not come correct. Also Nifty fall not coming which he is expecting for last 6 months and last 1000 points. I think he has to be humble enuf to accept this.

    1. I am still very bullish on the sector. We have made good money in the sector till now. Prices have firmed up and keep moving higher. We went bearish at around 8000 levels exited at 8550 and reentered shorts at higher prices of 8920. So effectively we lost 550 points in that wrong trade and now we have recovered 370 points of that. Not to mention that we have been selling calls and we have been getting 80-120 Rs prem so even if we take 6 months avg carry fwd cost 8000+600+370=8970 Today price is lower than that.

  4. Hi Mallav,

    I am not able to see any update about bajajhind in your updates recently. I would like to ask a small advice to hold or sell bajajhind shares.

    Anish G

  5. Glen Sir,

    you stopped talking about Renuka and Ugar, is this still in your good pick list? Both coming down along with Nifty.

  6. Sir,
    Nifty again taking support around 8530. Let’s see if 8500 breaks in this fall which is again slow, if yes we might see 8300 in 4-5 days itself.


  7. Hi…what percentage chances are that nifty takes out 9000 this Dec. Markets seldom obliges the majority view, they will create the noises around Fed hike, elections, etc…and smart money/liquidity will propel it higher.

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