Nifty Futures 30th Oct 2016

SGX Nifty Futures

LTP   9,089.50   +39.50 +0.43% High 9,090.00 Low 9,061.50 (Change Vs Today’s Nifty Futures (NSE) Closing)

SGX Nifty

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Nifty Futures 30th Oct 2016

Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty has been moving within a trading range along expected lines.

We reiterate that we will keep seeing zig zag movements in the coming days and we do not expect either side trending move to take place for now though on rise selling must be done as we do not see Nifty Futures sustaining on the higher side. Keep in mind that pullbacks will come from time to time and in those pullbacks selling must be done. It will be prudent to sell on rise as far as our wave counts go and avoid selling on panics for the time being.
If you are trading only on the basis of this post please use appropriate risk management and then only trade. Please do not over trade and keep you risk under control at all times.

In the immediate term we see a support for Nifty Futures around the 8250-8350 area and once these levels are tested from here we do expect sharp swings to start. The boring market conditions will not remain for long now as there are a some very important astro signatures about to begin in the next few days.

So in the month of Nov 2016 we do not see such sideways movements rather sharp swings will begin and overall trend will remain on the downside.

As far as the results season goes most of the results have not been good along expected lines. There were some negative surprises even to us like HUL and Axis Bank. Though we were expecting bad numbers from them we were not expecting such bad numbers. Anyways we do not see earnings pick up in any meaningful manner and we see that valuations are consistently getting stretched  so in current scenario we do not see that stocks will give any return over the next 12-18 months perspective from current levels. Sure during the coming 12 months there will be a period of sharp pullback and only during that phase should we buy and then once again exit at the higher side. We do not see any buy and hold strategy making any money with the exception of a few select stocks where there is massive valuation gap or some corporate announcements are about to happen which is well known to the insiders there by taking those stock prices higher.

FED is about to raise rates and the only question is that will it be in Nov or in Dec. The general street expectation is that the hike will take place in Dec but as far as we can see the dollar index which tracks the value of the green back is showing something else so at this juncture there are two possibilities. If the FED does not hike rates in Nov then surely it will be in Dec as most traders are aware that markets will always factor in the news well in advance and hence we will see a risk off trade globally. If Nov rate hike does take place then too a risk off is coming as most of the street does not expect any change in policy on 2nd Nov 2016.

Ugar sugar and renuka sugar will continue doing very well in the near term and also in the medium term. MSL too will keep going very well in the near term.  We have told our clients to continue holding on to those stocks. We strongly suggest to avoid Banking sector from a investment perspective as NPA problems are going to rise further from here.

Good Trading To You!

 

30 thoughts on “Nifty Futures 30th Oct 2016

  1. Hello Mallav – Firstly kudos to your keen analysis and happy Diwali to you and your family, insider info is to be; FED is not raising interest rates on Nov 2nd monitoring policy, it would keep under observation and would raise 25 to 50 BPS in Dec policy, added to post US election, in case Donal Trump wins, there would be lot of changes to take place in US democracy on slow by slow phase, which could re-consolidate global market.

  2. Hello Mallav – Firstly kudos to your keen analysis & market predictions. Happy Diwali to you and your family, FED is not raising interest rates on Nov 2nd monitoring policy, it would keep under observation and would raise 25 to 50 BPS in Dec policy, added to post US election, in case Donald Trump wins, there would be lot of changes to take place in US democracy on slow by slow phase, which could re-consolidate global market.

  3. Sir,
    Nice to see you coming back to full form like you were in Feb, Mar 2016. It’s good that Nifty levels also mentioned clearly in the post. Past few days after showing that there has to be some big move on the cards. If 8550 broken convincingly this time as you said we will see 8250 very quickly. Thanks for your guidance as always. Lost some money in last trade taken in f&o (had played on downside moves of ICICI and nhpc but ended losing), hopeful future moves.

    Regards
    Anpat2015

    Regards
    Anpat2015

  4. Hi Mr. Mallavv,
    I make it a point to read your post everyday, even the ‘comments’ which sometimes give more valuable information.
    I am really confused about pullbacks you have mentioned above. First you have said “pullbacks will come from time to time and in those pullbacks selling must be done.” Then you later say “during the coming 12 months there will be a period of sharp pullback and only during that phase should we buy”. Can you please explain what exactly should be done in a ‘Pullback’
    Thank you.

  5. Sir, can we see renuka sugars as a risk free investment at cmp Or you expect some more volatility in it till dec results are out..

  6. Is it advisable to short 200 point in the money call n 400 put out of money put to reap maximum profit like in current situation 8400 or 8300 call n 8200 put so that maximum premium can b eat up bcose as ur prediction every month avg 200 point correction may be expected no straight fall some time position may roll over

  7. wishing you and your family a very happy, prosperous , joyus and a bright dipavali…..

    happy new year in adv

    regards
    your follower

  8. Happy Diwali and happy new year to all….
    Dera sir
    US sugar future is down in last week …what would be impact on sugar stock of Indian companies….
    Your view pls …

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