Nifty Futures / Indian Stock Market Today’s Update 11-4-18
Nifty Futures today was seen flat to positive and finally ended the day in the green by 22 points. As of now the sentiment on the street is once again getting into bullish mode and while we are not currently very bearish at the very same time we are neither too bullish for the near term so do not get carried away by all the talk of new high and 11,000 levels in the near term be very alert for the time being.
Indian Stock market and global stock market are now heading into a time band that is going to be very challenging from a investors perspective so if you are planning on building portfolio be sure to pick up only high-quality names where there is ample earnings visibility and be sure to buy at reasonable valuations avoid high valuation stocks and do not fall prey to just the price action. Optically many stocks may look good since they would have corrected well from the recent highs but keep that in context of earnings and valuations do not just buy anything just for the reason that the stock has fallen by some XYZ percentage from the top. Our longer-term view on Nifty Futures / Indian Stock market, for the time being, is not too optimistic and we believe we will get much better valuations to enter into the market but there is still time to go for that scenario to present itself, for the time being, we do not see much value in the Indian stock markets.
The impact of earnings not picking up this time will be disastrous for a simple reason that stocks have priced in far higher earnings growth as of now and if these stocks do not deliver on the earnings front this time they will surely be punished badly by the markets. In addition to the earnings problem we will see crude oil and other macro news flow issues also in terms of crude oil prices because we see crude oil prices eventually moving much higher from current levels and that will lead to fuel lead inflation but even a bigger problem than that will be the fiscal deficit and CAD problems so though in the near term the bond markets have cooled off but in the medium term we do see rate hikes coming in from the Reserve bank much more faster than most market participants are expecting. Also keep in mind that the revised guidance on Inflation by the Reserve bank of India has come in during a period of Mercury retrograde and that we all know creates flipflops and we will not be surprised if Reserve Bank of India during its next policy will end up saying inflation risk has escalated due to xyz factors and we are worried about the overall situation with respect to inflation.
Bottom line resistances and supports could get breached on both sides in the near term so do watch out for proper levels and work with cluster zones that will help better from a near-term view or trading perspective. Very important days coming up and will be very interesting to see how things start panning out.
Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats
Nifty spot LTP 10402 (+22, +0.22%) , Nifty April Futures LTP 10421, Nifty May Futures LTP 10452, Rollover Difference 31.45 points, Rollover percent 6.43, Open Interest 323753, OI Change 0.89%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.2, Today’s Low-High 10381.50-10424.85.
Nifty 50 Live Chart is enclosed below in case you want to see SGX Nifty kindly change the symbol to IND50
Good Trading To You!