Nifty Futures / Indian Stock Market Today’s Update 9-4-18

Nifty Futures / Indian Stock Market Today’s Update 9-4-18

Nifty Futures today was seen consolidating in a small trading range for most part of the day but towards the end of trade was seen a bit higher and closed near the high point of the day. Overnight SGX Nifty was in the green and had moved past the 10400 levels but today morning S&p500 Futures were seen lower and hence Indian stock market did not rally as to what the SGX Nifty Futures was suggesting in the night.  Let us once again take a look at the larger picture now. Most traders who were suggesting 9700-9800 just two days back are now suggesting 11,000 levels or even 14000 levels in some cases on the premise that the bottom for the market is done around 10100 level and now the sharp rally that has started will take Nifty towards the 11,000 area or maybe even higher. Regular readers of this website are well aware that although in the longer term we remain bearish on Indian equities as an asset class but in the near term we are not bearish and since most people are talking about 11,000 levels (since the sentiment has become very bullish now)  as per our analysis we do not see new high or 11,000 levels for now but at the same time do remember that nor are we very bearish in the near term and nor are we very bullish in the near term. In the short term, our view on the Nifty Futures and the Indian stock market remains a trade in and out game and we are not advocating a buy and hold nor a sell and hold strategy for the near term. Those traders who can get in and out fast will be the ones who will end up making money buying and holding for the longer term also will not make much money for the simple reason that longer term we remain bearish on the markets and we do not see any major value for long-term buying.

Some of you have called me and been telling me that xyz stock has fallen almost 30-50 percent from the top and why are you saying that it is not a good buy at current levels for the longer term and my answer to that is simple. The stocks which were at 20Rs a few years back went to 300 rs and now they have merely corrected that froth so does that mean that at 170rs it’s a good buy? No well we don’t think so because at the end of the day just ask one question is the stock cheap at 170rs or is it still trading at hefty valuations and then also ask yourself does the earnings visibility look good from now onwards that even if you buy into the stock a bit expensive then the pick up in earnings will it take care of the marginal premium or hefty premium you are buying the stock at. Keep these questions in mind before you start buying for the longer term.

From an astro cycle perspective in a few days, we are entering a very powerful zone of very potent astrological events and that will be a game changer for the markets so be very careful while you take positions and be very nimble footed and avoid excessive trading positions. We would just say not to get carried away by bulls or the bears in the near term and if you are stuck in your portfolio longs then you should be using this rise to exit the net longs and get onto as much cash as possible. We are very certain from a portfolio standpoint that much better valuations will be available to invest in the coming time.

Part of what we recommended

4/5/18, 8:59 AM – Glen Drago: Gm
4/5/18, 8:59 AM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
4/5/18, 8:59 AM – Glen Drago: If anything to do will update
4/5/18, 9:16 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty Fut book 1 part which was bought yesterday
4/5/18, 9:16 AM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty Fut booked 1 part
4/5/18, 9:16 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
4/5/18, 9:17 AM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty Fut booked 1 part for buy done yesterday at 10120 spot levels
4/5/18, 9:17 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
4/5/18, 9:17 AM – Glen Drago: If anything else to do will update
4/5/18, 9:18 AM – Glen Drago: RBI policy is expected to be neutral but we could see some dovish statements helping Indian equities in the near term
4/5/18, 10:51 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
4/5/18, 10:51 AM – Glen Drago: if anything to be done will update
4/5/18, 10:51 AM – Glen Drago: Crude Oil Hold 1 Part short as told
4/5/18, 1:28 PM – Glen Drago: If anything to do will update
4/5/18, 1:28 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
4/5/18, 2:30 PM – Glen Drago: No change in repo rates
4/5/18, 2:30 PM – Glen Drago: RBI keeps rates at 6 percent
4/5/18, 2:30 PM – Glen Drago: Inflation forecast lowered
4/5/18, 2:31 PM – Glen Drago: Dovish statements as expected
4/5/18, 2:39 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty 10200 April Put hold 1 part Short and Nifty 10300 April Put hold 1 part Short as told
4/5/18, 3:03 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty book 10300 put shorts
4/5/18, 3:03 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty 10300 put shorts booked
4/5/18, 3:03 PM – Glen Drago: Hold nifty 10200 April put shorts as told
4/5/18, 3:05 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty book 10200 April put shorts
4/5/18, 3:06 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty 10200 April puts booked profits
4/5/18, 3:06 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation no open positions in Nifty
4/5/18, 3:06 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation no open positions in Nifty for now
4/5/18, 3:06 PM – Glen Drago: If anything else to do will update
4/5/18, 3:12 PM – Glen Drago: Good Evening Nifty Update For tomorrow           http://www.mallavv.com/sgx-nifty/nifty-futures-indian-stock-market-todays-update-06-04-18.html
4/5/18, 3:13 PM – Glen Drago: Crude Oil Hold 1 part shorts as told
4/6/18, 9:34 AM – Glen Drago: Gm
4/6/18, 9:34 AM – Glen Drago: No open positions in Nifty
4/6/18, 9:34 AM – Glen Drago: Crude oil hold 1 part Short as told
4/6/18, 12:01 PM – Glen Drago: If anything to do will update
4/6/18, 1:57 PM – Glen Drago: Take the day off and come back on Monday
4/6/18, 1:57 PM – Glen Drago: Tc and enjoy your weekend
4/6/18, 1:57 PM – Glen Drago: If anything to do will update
4/6/18, 3:28 PM – Glen Drago: Good Evening Nifty Update For 9th April 2018             http://www.mallavv.com/sgx-nifty/nifty-futures-indian-stock-market-todays-update-9-4-18.html

Good Trading To You!