Nifty Futures Todays Trend, Support, Resistance, Prediction, Analysis, Target and View is given below
Nifty Futures today continued to move higher. Now we are reaching a very critical area both in terms of time and price so let us look at the overall picture. We were initially short from around 11,000 area and we were expecting the fall to begin around end of Jan 2018 and Nifty Futures exactly moved lower from Jan 2018 along expected lines at that point in time our view and targets were of around 10100 and despite many of our clients telling us that markets could move higher we kept repeating our initial round target of 10100. Despite all the volatility we continued to hold on to the shorts and once we reached around the 10100 area we did a standard review of the wave counts. At that point in time when Nifty Futures was around the 10100-9952 area, there was absolute panic on the street if you would have spoken to any person each and every person had the same view that Nifty Futures is heading for lower side targets of 9500-9700. The most optimistic people had a view that time was of 9850 but there was total consensus that time around end of March 2018 that Nifty Futures will not cross 10200 and Nifty will see lower side targets the quantum of the downfall was in question but the street view, prediction, and target was the same that Nifty is heading lower.
Regular readers of this website are well aware that at very time when everyone was in panic we were probably the lone trading voice who was suggesting to buy around 10000 levels and not to exit portfolio around 10000 levels as we were clearly seeing this move towards 10650 and we were guiding to wait for better prices on the portfolio front (we do not take into consideration those perennial bulls who say buy at 11,000 10,800 or buy at 10100 those guys never talk sell they just say keep buying at every level so we do not consider their voice as explained) but if we leave out our view there probably were very few people who were saying buy into this fall for the time being with respect to the Indian stock market as near-term selling was over done for that point in time and the wave which started around 111171 had played out. At that point in time when Nifty was around 10,000 levels we were consistently saying that we expect one move towards the 10600-10650 area and even that time most market participants were not expecting or predicting anything beyond 10300-10400 area but once again the wave counts and astro cycles have played out perfectly and Nifty moved towards the 10650 area along predicted lines. Now Nifty Futures has reached the levels of around 10750 so it is very important to stay alert and not to get carried away by what most people on the street are expecting as sentiment is once again suggesting a peaking and most people who were bearish have been forced out of their shorts from the market also, many traders are now long in extremly heavy quantity with respect to their own personal capacity so there person who can actually manage 3 lots is long in 10 longs all thanks to the avereging and parallel positions taken by them in dabba trading being aware of these facts we have been advising our clients whoever is currently long in their portfolio to exit their longs (but we know that most people are no mood to exit portfolios because all of them now feel that Nifty is heading for targets of 12000) and get on to as much cash as possible and wait on the sidelines. From a trading standpoint when to sell what to sell and how much to sell that we will keep guiding our clients but from a longer-term perspective as we have been saying that there are too many headwinds that the Indian stock market has to face and in the wake of headwinds like crude oil, depreciating INR, fiscal deficit which is going out of hand, rising current account deficit and not to forget that what inflation will do to rates locally these factors are historically not supportive of Indian equities. We have always noted that whenever we have seen massive pressure from macro front eventually Indian stock markets / Nifty Futures has always seen steep declines.
Crude Oil Futures this is one of the biggest problems for Indian stock market, not only will this spur inflation both services lead inflation and fuel based inflation but will also lead to the widening of the current account deficit and also widen the fiscal deficit. Till now the Govt has passed on the hikes in international crude oil prices but we do not see going into an election year how long will the Govt be able to continue passing on these hikes on the petroleum side which would mean that either inflation will zoom if hikes are continued to be passed on or fiscal deficit will go for a toss in either of the cases Reserve bank of India will be forced to start the rate hike cycle and as we have mentioned even before that we expect rates to move up much more faster than what most of the market participants are expecting so we will see how this pans out but in any case this is not good news for the bulls so keep in mind that Nifty will eventually react to this because corporate earnings will take a hit both due to slowing demand and rising rates which means that the earnings recovery that everyone is talking about remains elusive. We will keep updating regularly on the overall macro picture as we see it from time to time on this website.
From a near-term perspective, we see that Nifty Futures has resistance around the 10900 area now and supports are placed around 10611 spot Nifty levels mentioned. As per our Nifty Futures trend analysis, prediction our view remains that we see much lower targets for the Nifty and we are not in the camp that feels that Nifty is heading higher or a new bull cycle is started. The magnitude of the down move will be updated and discussed later but as things stand right now it is time to be extremely alert and careful. The next few expiry’s we could see much more lower prices from here so be very alert. If you are trading only on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and then only trade. Please do not over trade and keep your risk in check at all times.
Nifty Share Price / Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats
Nifty spot LTP 10739 (+47.05, +0.44%) , Nifty 31May Futures LTP 10,783 (Previous Close 10723, Volume 61,843) , Nifty 28June Futures LTP 10792 (Previous Close 10729, Volume 2,057 ), Rollover Difference 8.45 points, Rollover percent 2.99% , Open Interest 333187, OI Change 3.62%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.19, Today’s Low-High 10704-10759. Top Gainer was YesBank and Top Loser was Axis Bank. Most Open Interest Up PCJeweller Most Open Interest Down CGPOWER Daily Nifty spot RSI 70.04. Advance 757 Declines 980 Unchanged 315
Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty Live Streaming Real-Time Chart which updates on a real-time basis is provided below for reference Resistance, support levels have been discussed above