Nifty Futures Todays Trend, Support, Resistance, Prediction, Analysis, Target and View is given below
Nifty Futures today continued moving higher along expected lines. We once again reiterate that based on our analysis of Nifty Futures chart, trend our view, prediction remains that we do not see Nifty Futures target of 11,000 for the time being eventually we even see a target for Nifty of 23800 as we have mentioned from much more longer time frame but in the near term we do see some good resistance around 10650 spot Nifty levels mentioned to act as a decent resistance area. The important point is not that there is resistance around the 10650 area where Nifty has been struggling for the past few days but actually the important point is that the manner in which global macros are going against India we do not see Indian stock markets or Indian equities as an asset class outperforming the world stock markets or holding out any major supports for longer duration of time in fact we expect that these global headwinds which have been steadily increasing for the past so many days is eventually going to create massive downside pressure due to sudden spikes which will be seen in both current account deficit and inflation. The impact of inflation moving higher as we have been saying and predicting is that will be felt much more and Reserve bank of India will be forced to move rates higher much more faster than what the street has been estimating. So let us look at the headwinds once again
First major headwind is crude oil prices moving higher. The first most important point to be understood is that crude oil price was an issue for India at 55 then the problem got worse at 60 then it even got more worse at 65 and now almost around 70 now the important question is that has crude oil done all the damage? No as per our analysis, view and prediction of crude oil futures our target remains around the area of 82 and in MXC Crude Oil our target is around 6000 and this will only make the macro headwinds that we are talking about more bad so the situation which is already an extremely alarming one will not be improve from here it will only get more worse and create more problems for the Indian economy and when we would do a simple top down analysis we will realize that most companies will be both directly and indirectly affected by this rise in crude oil. To add to this problem is the USDINR pair we see USDINR pair eventually moving beyond a target 72 so if that situation plays out which will because even usdinr chart is consistently making classic textbook style higher tops and bottoms and to make matters worse based on the open interest data we see that there are huge short positions currently in the usdinr pair which means that at some stage these shorts will be forced to cover because the move will be very fast and we understand from alternative analysis systems that 35-40% of these shorts in usdinr have come from retail to semi retail accounts which means that there will be massive short covering in the usdinr which eventually will force the reserve bank of india to hike rates.
Now since the rate cut cycle is over and as we had predicted that reserve bank of india will be forced to change its stance of dovishness to extreme hawkishness as when they had announced the policy the last time we were under mercury retrograde period and it is a given as a rule that whenever central banks or govt makes announcements under mercury retrograde period it is bound to do a u turn on that announcement (our historical analysis of over past 100 years shows that this has happened and is clearly evident from past cycles of mercury retrograde) anyways so coming back to the higher rates cycle this will further derail any growth that most analyst or investors are talking about and we are not in the camp that believes that we will see any significant absolute growth coming through but because of the factors mentioned we see that any possibility of earnings recovery will go for a toss. Now some of you may argue that even though the earnings have not been coming through for past almost 4 years yet the markets have been moving higher and I take that point on board but if we just look at the past 4 years the one major factor was that inflation was low and money was cheap around the world and the most important factor was that there were not many alternative avenues where investors could park their money so it was in default mode moving into the global stock markets and from an India perspective to the Indian stock markets but now that very fuel or the underlying factor that was supporting the global rally is changing with interest rates moving higher consistently and the point is that rates will not be seen moving lower they will move higher and with the global bond rally which is currently underway there are now alternative investment avenues where investors can park their money if they choose to do so which was not present 4 years back so if someone does ask me do we see any major meaningful earnings recovery? The answer to my mind is no we do not see any major earnings recovery and while we say this we do expect to see some green shoots in some places but we do not see those green shoots sustainable because of the headwinds which are ever increasing in the near term.
From an astro cycle prediction as we have guided before the current time band will be very tricky so be very sure of what you are trading and keep proper risk management in place and then only enter trades. Do not trade blindly now and do not get carried away by the euphoria that the street is seeing as of now. We don’t expect targets of 11,000 for now and we could see some massive movements in the coming days so be ready and alert.
Nifty Share Price / Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats
Nifty spot LTP 10617 (+47, +0.45%) , Nifty 31May Futures LTP 10,622 (Previous Close 10591, Volume 1,74,773) , Nifty 28June Futures LTP 10629 (Previous Close 10605, Volume 2,688 ), Rollover Difference 6.85 points, Rollover percent 64.1% , Open Interest 474241, OI Change -27.14%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.46, Today’s Low-High 10559-10628. Top Gainer was YesBank and Top Loser was BhartiAirtel. Most Open Interest Up Suzlon Most Open Interest Down Nifty Bank Daily Nifty spot RSI 63.85. Advance 783 Declines 927 Unchanged 337
Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty Live Streaming Real-Time Chart which updates on a real-time basis is provided below for reference Resistance, support levels have been discussed above