Nifty Futures Trend, Prediction, View, Target 10th May 18

 

Nifty Futures Todays Trend, Support, Resistance, Prediction, Analysis, Target and View is given below

Nifty Futures today continued moving around the 10700-10800 area. As per our analysis which is a combination of Elliot wave, Gann wave, time cycles and astro cycle we are of the view that Nifty  trend will not continue this current sideways or range bound movement that is currently taking place between or around the 10700 area for many days now and a trending move is about to begin on the downside with substantially lower targets for Nifty.  During this fall Nifty supports also will not make much sense because the fall will be very sharp and hence taking out supports will be a matter of few hours so we do not think that any major supports will be holding out during the oncoming wave or down cycle. We are well aware that many of the analyst and in general the trading community is currently very bullish on the Indian stock market and everyone is talking about targets of 12000 or the most pessimistic trader is putting out targets of 11,500 and this can be seen not only from the view and talk that most people are outing out but also from the net open interest data that is showing massive or rather extravagant net longs in the system but we do not see much higher side targets coming for now and we are of the view that trending down move is about to start taking Nifty Futures / Nifty 50 much more lower from current prices. We have been guiding on this website that this is not the price to buy fresh because primarily of low earnings growth and the increasing headwinds on a macro level and hence we have been recommending/advising to get out of the Indian stock market and get onto as much cash as possible. If you have not followed the advice till now then it is high time to be very alert as the current down move will not only erode your profits in the portfolio but will even wipe out your capital within a matter of months so be very alert and if you are over confident like most of the market participants about higher side levels then our recommendation would at least to hedge your portfolio or adjust the portfolio into buy sell strategy so that your losses will be minimized during the fall that is about to begin in the next few weeks. The fall could also be extremely sharp and fast so do not underestimate the power of the oncoming wave.  We have over the past 2 trading days warned about the wave could be very similar to that of 2008 fall and maintain that view and prediction for the time being.

When we take a look at the sentiment indicator the reading that was extremely pessimistic around 10000 levels and now overshot and gone to extremely over-optimistic levels this at a time when Indian macros have deteriorated over the past few weeks. Consider this when Nifty was around the 10,000 levels or to be more specific 9952 low, crude oil was much lower from current levels so the headwind on account of crude oil has only increased with respect to 10,000 levels or even if we see from the calendar year perspective, USDINR was at much more lower levels and this too has become a bigger head wind for now than anticipated, bonds were more or less around the same levels and the massive recovery in earnings what the street was talking about is not present though there has been minor improvement in select pockets but most of them have taken place on a lower base just take for instance Tata motors numbers the UK numbers have shown growth but the base with respect to last year is much lower and hence in absolute sense the numbers do not suggest any major demand cycle recovery which is essential for  earnings growth is missing.

If we take a pure technical outlook on the market we see there are many resistances in this area and upwards so we do not see Nifty managing to cross pass the current resistances and move higher towards the 11,000 plus targets that bulk of the market participants are talking about also, the momentum on the upside is clearly reducing and all this is happening around some major astro cycle events so next few weeks is very important.  The election results in Karnataka could also be a trigger for the Indian market we will update on that event in some other post.

We are of the view that Bank Nifty which is one of the major components of Nifty 50 is expected to underperform during this down move which means that Bank Nifty is expected to see even more pressure than the Nifty and eventually we will see much more lower side targets the damage will be even more evident in the Public sector banking space which will also take a big hit we are not suggesting for one minute that Private sector banks will do well they also will go for a toss but PSU Banks will be under much more pressure as some of the individual PSU banks have already started the fall well before bank nifty or Nifty 50 and that is not a good sign for Banking sector. The overall breadth of the markets is also suggesting a sharp divergence in what Nifty Futures / Bank Nifty is doing and what the broader markets are doing. Time to stay very alert and watch for major trend changing signals once again we are clearly saying that if certain criteria’s are completed then the fall will resemble that of Jan 2008 and if you do get stuck in the portfolio then there will be no way out.

Bottom line Based on our analysis, view, prediction Nifty Futures trend is about to turn down we expect much lower targets we don’t expect much supports to hold and massive resistance present from here onwards both on account of the time cycle and price cycles.

Nifty Share Price / Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats

Nifty spot LTP 10741 (+23, +0.22%) , Nifty 31May Futures LTP 10,774 (Previous Close 10735, Volume 81,762) , Nifty 28June Futures LTP 10781 (Previous Close 10742, Volume 3,555 ), Rollover Difference 7.1 points, Rollover percent 3.61% , Open Interest 346527, OI Change 4.29%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.31, Today’s Low-High 10689-10758. Top Gainer was Tata Motors and Top Loser was Ultratech Most Open Interest Up Hind Petro Most Open Interest Down Exide  Daily Nifty spot RSI 65.44. Advance 701 Declines 1006 Unchanged 335. Short-term trend Neutral Long-Term Trend Down

Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty Live Streaming Real-Time Chart which updates on a real-time basis is provided below for reference Resistance, support levels have been discussed above