Nifty Futures Todays Trend, Support, Resistance, Prediction, Analysis, Target and View is given below
Nifty Futures today continued being within the range and hovered around the 10700 area along expected lines. As per our analysis of Nifty Futures Trend our view, prediction remains the same that near-term we could see a bit more volatility but longer term regardless of the election results or any other factors we do not see or rather we are not of the view that Nifty will move for higher side targets and we see Nifty moving lover over the longer term from now onwards. As we have been advising/recommending that Nifty has significant resistances around current levels and we do see Indian stock markets moving much higher from here.
There is also a school of thought among some of the traders that Nifty will zoom towards targets of 11,000 post the Karnataka election results where according to most of the people BJP will form Govt with outside support but from an astrological perspective, we do not see that taking place. We see Cong will form the govt using some outside force and that too will put pressure on the markets but regardless of who forms the Govt we do not see any upside sustaining so be very careful in longs especially portfolio longs.
Many of you have been constantly calling me and asking me that even though crude oil has rallied from 28$ per barrel now almost to 72$ per barrel and USDINR has been steadily depreciating as your have been predicting but even though both of them are such negatives for the Indian Stock market yet Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures continues moving up so where is the inverse correlation that has always been there between USDINR in particular and the Nifty? Well, the answer to that lies in some technicalities so understand this carefully. Firstly, over longer durations of time there is a clear inverse correlation between USDINR and Nifty Futures so if USDINR has depreciated Nifty Futures has always seen coming down but the inverse correlation takes place with a longer duration of time and need not be immediate as everyone is expecting this move to be so it could well be that Nifty Futures remains at current prices and Indian Rupee depreciates some more and then all of a sudden the market starts reacting to the fall in the value of the INR. It is also the same or rather a similar inverse correlation with regard to Crude Oil is also seen but once again Nifty Futures reacts or rather has an inverse correlation not actually to crude oil but in reality to fiscal deficit and current account deficit so in reality rising fiscal deficit / current account deficit or for that matter inflation has always been seen as the true factor that controls or acts like a leading indicator to predict the Nifty Futures trend move well in advance so is it that Crude oil and USDINR are not important factors and we should only focus on the fiscal deficit and current account deficit or inflation? The answer to that is no because India being one of the largest importers of Crude oil is surely going to take a hit on account of rising crude oil prices so what that boils down to is how much of a hit will the Indian fiscal deficit / current account deficit take and hence what effect will it have so the point being that the actual direct inverse correlation is present with respect to Current account deficit and fiscal deficit but not crude oil but since we are such huge importers of crude oil, Crude oil futures becomes our leading indicator to see where is fiscal deficit heading and that in turn can show and point as to where the Nifty Futures is heading but one more important point to keep in mind is that this cannot be taken in isolation but has to be taken into account keeping in mind other leading indicators which include the Indian bond yields with respect to the international bond markets because that will actually determine how much money is getting invested in Indian markets or Indian equities and that in turn will determine the longer term trajectory of the Indian rupee surely again not a standalone indictor but a reliable one and once again needs to be looked at keeping the other leading indicators in mind but overall coming back to the point of why Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures has not yet reacted to such headwinds then simple answer it will but may not be immediate as everyone is expecting it to be but having said that that does not mean that Nifty Futures will perpetually keep ignoring these headwinds and at some point in time will have to react to these negative influences on the Indian equities market. As usual, if you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and then only trade. Please do not over trade under any circumstances.
Nifty Share Price / Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats
Nifty spot LTP 10716 (-25, -0.23%) , Nifty 31May Futures LTP 10,725 (Previous Close 10769, Volume 85,580) , Nifty 28June Futures LTP 10730 (Previous Close 10777, Volume 3,712 ), Rollover Difference 5.7 points, Rollover percent 3.72% , Open Interest 338101, OI Change -0.12%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.27, Today’s Low-High 10705-10785. Top Gainer was ONGC and Top Loser was DrReddy Most Open Interest Up Federal Bank Most Open Interest Down PCJeweller Daily Nifty spot RSI 61.81. Advance 437 Declines 1293 Unchanged 318. Short-term trend Neutral Long-Term Trend Down
Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty Live Streaming Real-Time Chart which updates on a real-time basis is provided below for reference Resistance, support levels have been discussed above