Nifty Futures Trend, Prediction, View, Target For 7-5-18

Nifty Futures today closed lower for the third day in a row and the important observation to watch is for the third day in a row the real traded price in the morning is open equals high on the spot Nifty charts. This is an important signal that Nifty is providing from a technical stand point indicating that there is selling pressure from the word go but at the same time prices are drifting down slowly and steadily and that is making many think and conclude that Nifty is not done with the bullish side of the move that started at 9952 and that Nifty is heading for a target of 11,000 regular readers of this website are well aware that we do not see any major upside from current prices and at around 10,000 levels we were predicting targets of 10,650 spot Nifty levels. We are not concluding anything for the time being but we are watching very closely but the overall indicators that we see do not suggest any major bullish side so when to sell where to sell and when to start selling aggressively we will see but in the near-term we are advising to be very alert and careful and not to overtrade.  There will come one point in this month of May that the fall could start looking like that of 2008 if certain criteria are fulfilled and if that condition does come then the only thing to do every morning will be to sell and then again sell more then next day and not bother about covering shorts, now the trigger for this fall will be global but could also be local add on’s due to the Karnataka elections where we do not expect the BJP to do very well and we could see some major pressure post that results are out.

Nifty Futures minor trend, for now, remains up but the longer term major  trend remains down for the time being the pullback trend that started at 9952 has started showing signs of fatigue along expected lines as per our analysis but as things stand right now we do not have visual confirmation of the breakdown so does that mean you should be buying no we don’t think buying is the right strategy as of now (buying was the right strategy at around 10,000 levels ) as there is a possibility that the current move could terminate on the upside all of a sudden and start a very sharp downside move. If we do see speed on the downside the markets will just start falling like nine pins and Nifty will not take much support at any level because the fall will be global in nature and could resume the main trend and the oncoming time cycles and astro cycles are indicating sharp volatility to begin anytime in the coming few trading days so if during this volatility we start seeing downside speed then hell will break loose for the  bulls and no matter how good the portfolio or stocks all will be hammered without exception.

Nifty Futures near-term resistance is at 10820 and support is at 10411. Our view, prediction remains that we will see much lower price targets from here and this is not an area to be buying into the portfolio. Better investment opportunities will come later during the year or maybe early next year but the current price is not the place to be buying into the Indian stock market. Indian equities our view and prediction remains will underperform world stock markets on account of the massive headwinds that are building up which have been discussed in the preceding updates.

Crude Oil Futures update

Crude Oil Futures zoomed overnight and moved higher by 2.12%. Regular readers of this website are well aware that we have set a target for Crude Oil around 82$/BBL in Nymex and as far as Indian MCX goes we have set a target of around 6000 level. It is important to understand that Crude Oil Futures now does not have any major resistance area till the 5100 area so we could from an technical analysis stand point see the price of crude oil moving higher almost vertically in the coming next few days and that will just put more pressure on the Current account deficit and the fiscal deficit because till now the Goverment has passed on hikes but from now onwards going into 2019 we do not think that the Goverment will be in a position to continue passing on the higher crude oil price so from now onwards or sooner than later Goverment will have to start reducing the exise duty on petrolium products and that will dent the fiscal deficit not to mention that this will spur inflation and Reserve Bank of India will be forced to hike rates may be even earlier than our own estimate of Sept 2018.  We are of the view that Crude Oil price target of 5100 in MCX will be seen in a few weeks time so be very careful because this is directly impacting the overall.

Astro Cycle and Time Cycle Update

As we have been guiding that in the coming weeks there are some very important astrological signatures present which has been known to create volatility some of them are very important not only from a near-term perspective but also a medium-term perspective. Venus squares Neptune on Monday and Mercury squares Pluto on monday 7th may then on 8th Tuesday Sun opposition Jupiter is also an important astrological signature but even more important is coming up right after the Karnatak elections and that is Uranus will change its house and move to Taurus but this is amplified because there on 15th may 2018 it is a new moon day and Mars which is one of the msot important planets for short term trading also changes house and moves to Aquarius so all these put together will create some massive volatility so be prepared it and keep proper stops in place while trading. Among all these Uranus changing house is the most critical from a medium to longer term perspective because Uranus in reality as far as characteristics are concerned is the higher or more powerful big brother of Mercury so it could start a time of reality check especially in the Banking sector. Those trading in Bank Nifty should expect some extreme volatility right ahead. From a time cycle perspective 7th May 2018 would be 45 days from the trading low of 9952 so be vert alert there are way too many forwards indicators showing some major volatility ahead. Also, the coming week would be the 7th week of the pullback that started from 9952. Based on our analysis we are advising to remain very alert in the next few days.

What to expect from Nifty Futures for this week starting 7/5/18. The Indian stock market has three major leading indicators S&P 500, USDINR, Crude Oil there are some other important indicators also which have a high degree of correlation with but for the time being we will work with these three mentioned here. It is not a given that all of them will not result into instantaneous results in terms of Nifty Futures price movement but over some time frames, they always have been known to react. In this current week we see that Monday could initially open higher but we will need to observe the immediate impacts of both crude oil futures breakout and depreciating usdinr pair which based on our analysis we expect to see move towards 72 will put a lot of pressure on the Indian markets in this week so be very alert as we have guided.

Nifty Share Price / Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats

Nifty spot LTP 10614 (-63, -0.60%) , Nifty 31May Futures LTP 10,657 (Previous Close 10706, Volume 80,957) , Nifty 28June Futures LTP 10668 (Previous Close 10719, Volume 2,289 ), Rollover Difference 12.95 points, Rollover percent 3.3% , Open Interest 332214, OI Change 1.36%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.18, Today’s Low-High 10601-10700. Top Gainer was Adani ports and Top Loser was Sunpharma Most Open Interest Up Icici Bank Most Open Interest Down Tata Chem  Daily Nifty spot RSI 57.46. Advance 691 Declines 1033 Unchanged 323. Short-term trend Neutral Long-Term Trend Down

Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty Live Streaming Real-Time Chart which updates on a real-time basis is provided below for reference Resistance, support levels have been discussed above