Nifty Futures Trend, Prediction, View, Target For 8-5-18

Nifty Futures today zoomed higher almost 100 points in the green but one of the real leading indicators that needs to be watched very carefully from now onwards for the next few trading days and maybe the next few weeks is USDINR pair. INR has been steadily losing value and has been depreciating over the past few months and now has steadily depreciated from 63.25 to almost 67.10 today that is a 6% depreciation till date but as of now the Indian stock markets have not reacted to this steady devaluation of INR to add to this issue Crude Oil Futures on Friday did give a massive powerful breakout and that too is heading for targets of 6000 over the longer term and around 5100 in the near to medium term. The important point is that both these instruments have been leading indicators for Nifty Futures on a historical basis while I agree that there is no one on one immediate correlation that if crude oil goes up by x percent then Nifty will move down by y percent but over longer duration of time there is a significant correlation and they have always been leading indicators so if these leading indicators are to be believed this time also then Nifty Futures will not sustain on the higher side or in other words we do not see a fresh bullish cycle in the near term. Does that mean that Nifty cannot move up a few more points from here well sure it can but in the long term do we see Nifty taking out 11,000 or head into fresh bullish cycle the answer to that is no we do not see Nifty Futures heading for higher side targets nor do we see a fresh bullish cycle.  Coming back to the USDINR pair we expect levels of 72 in the short to medium term and we do not see any major downside as USDINR charts are making perfect higher tops and higher bottoms but besides the pattern the speed with which it is moving is suggesting other things also and that is USDINR pair is not coming down towards 65 area where based on open interest data it is clearly evident that there are a lot of shorts in the system especially retail shorts are present so now consider a scenario where USDINR is around 72-70 zone and crude oil futures are around the 5100 area in MCX in the short to medium term just consider this scenario before you make any investment decisions. Once again please understand my view or prediction  is that near-term we could have some more volatility but with such kind of headwinds have always lead to disastrous outcomes not just now each and every time in history whenever such events have taken place eventually may not be immediately but eventually Indian stock markets have always gone for a toss.

Nifty Futures technical outlook.

Nifty Futures short-term trend remains neutral while longer-term trend remains down. Nifty Futures trend resistance is at 10829 and support is at 10662. Our view, prediction remains we will see much lower side targets and get better prices to enter the longer-term. Near-term outlook remains that cautious on the Nifty and avoiding fresh investments at present juncture. As always if you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and then only trade. Please do not overtrade under any circumstances.

Nifty Share Price / Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats

Nifty spot LTP 10715 (+97, +0.92%) , Nifty 31May Futures LTP 10,742 (Previous Close 10658, Volume 74,407) , Nifty 28June Futures LTP 10758 (Previous Close 10669, Volume 2,670 ), Rollover Difference 10.95 points, Rollover percent 3.34% , Open Interest 334924, OI Change 2.62%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.24, Today’s Low-High 10601-10700. Top Gainer was GAIL and Top Loser was Lupin Most Open Interest Up Nifty Bank Most Open Interest Down PC Jeweller  Daily Nifty spot RSI 63.95. Advance 751 Declines 790 Unchanged 318. Short-term trend Neutral Long-Term Trend Down

Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty Live Streaming Real-Time Chart which updates on a real-time basis is provided below for reference Resistance, support levels have been discussed above