Nifty Futures Trend, Prediction, View, Target For 9-5-18

Nifty Futures today ended the day flat. As per our analysis of Nifty Futures trend our view, prediction remains that we will see significantly lower side targets over the longer term but in the near term we could see some more volatility. Overall we do not see Nifty sustaining on the higher side and expect prices to see some sharp downside like that of 2008 fall if certain conditions are fulfilled. Please be very alert and do not over trade. As usual, if you are trading only on the basis of this post please use appropriate risk management and then only trade. Please do not over trade under any circumstances.

Icici Bank today was seen rallying and leading the Banking sector on account of good numbers posted by Bank yesterday. Regular readers of this website are well aware that when Icici Bank was trading around 260 and everyone was in a total panic we had clearly mentioned that though longer term we remain bearish on Icici Bank near term we see a bounce back in Icici Bank and that bounce back is more or less done now. Minor volatility is possible in Icici Bank there by affecting Bank Nifty marginally but the charts are indicating that the pullback trend that had started at 258 is done so do not get too excited in Icici Bank on account of the results. Icici Bank has a resistance between 312-316 NSE spot Levels mentioned and we do not see the counter sustaining above 316.

Overall outlook, View, Prediction on Nifty / Nifty Futures.

If we take a look at the sentiment indicators everyone is totally bullish.  Every person trading now is of the consensus view that Nifty is heading for 11,000 and some even are talking about targets of 14,000 but the important indicator to watch out is that when every market participant is expecting the same outcome in a similar time frame then we know we have reached a danger zone so be very alert as the similar opposite was present when Nifty Futures was at 10,000 levels and everyone that point in time was expecting 9500 but Indian stock markets proved once again that whenever everyone is on the same side of the trade that’s always a dangerous view and trade.

USDINR depreciation has been consistently taking place and now USDINR has moved from around 63 to almost 67 and as of today, INR is at the lowest level in years after which Reserve Bank of India was seen intervening in the market.  This is now becoming into a major problem for the economy and will eventually put massive pressure on Indian equities as we do not expect the move to end here it will at least move towards 72 and around 72 we will review the situation. Crude Oil Futures this too has been a headwind and continues to be so. With each passing day, Crude Oil is moving higher and it is creating massive pressure on inflation and eventually will lead to a massive fiscal deficit problem.

Bond Yields this too has been rising and purely from a historical standpoint as bond yields have rising eventually stock prices have always fallen again there is a consistent historical correlation to this not now but since many years.  The data of the past 100 years confirms the same.

With all these headwinds and some more which we have not discussed here, we do not see the current circumstances a conducive environment for Indian Equities especially after the introduction of long-term capital gains tax so thanks to the LTCG Indian equities becomes and looks far less attractive than most other fixed-income asset class.

Nifty Share Price / Nifty 50 / Nifty Futures today’s stats

Nifty spot LTP 10717 (+2.3, +0.02%) , Nifty 31May Futures LTP 10,735 (Previous Close 10742, Volume 85,211) , Nifty 28June Futures LTP 10741 (Previous Close 10758, Volume 4,870 ), Rollover Difference 6.9 points, Rollover percent 3.58% , Open Interest 339059, OI Change 2.54%, PCR (Put Call Ratio) 1.25, Today’s Low-High 10689-10758. Top Gainer was Icici Bank and Top Loser was M&M Most Open Interest Up Icici Bank Most Open Interest Down WockPharma  Daily Nifty spot RSI 63.47. Advance 735 Declines 981 Unchanged 329. Short-term trend Neutral Long-Term Trend Down

Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty Live Streaming Real-Time Chart which updates on a real-time basis is provided below for reference Resistance, support levels have been discussed above