SGX Nifty Futures
(Change Vs Today’s Nifty Futures (NSE) Closing)
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Nifty Futures Update 7th Dec 2016
Nifty Futures / SGX Nifty continued its slow steady move higher along expected lines. As per our analysis / view we once again reiterate that near term we do not see much weakness but in the longer term we see our final target of 5872 being achieved and we are very clear that whenever we see this pullback ending we will once again initiate short positions but in the near term we do not think short selling will give much or any money to traders. The current set up is not a easy one to trade and patience could be tested on both sides so please keep that in mind and then only trade.
Tomorrow Reserve Bank of India will announce its policy around 2.30 PM IST and as per our understanding we could see a min of 25 bps rate cut and even a 50 bps rate cut is possible the only question that remains is will the Reserve Bank front load the rate cut or wait for the next policy to cut more but regardless of what the Reserve Bank does 25 bps rate cut will be in the offering and a partial roll back of the CRR hike is also expected in addition to this we also expect the tenure of the bonds to be extended to 31st March 2017 and the overall commentary for interest rates will be lower. We could also see a slight lower revision in the inflation expectations commentary by the Reserve Bank. So how will all this affect the market ? We see that if RBI front loads the rate cut to 50 bps then we could see some crazy moves in the market but if the rate cut is restricted to 25 bps then the downside gates will be restricted and the slow upward bias for the near term will remain. Overall more than the rate cut the Reserve Bank commentary will be key to watch out and we see that their guidance will remain very dovish in the near term. We could also see a repo rate cut by 25 bps keep all this calculation in mind and also understand that bond rates which is the leading indicator of all is indicating a 50 bps rate cut (keep in mind that bond prices have fallen from almost 7 to around 6.10 and today is around 6.20) so the most leading indicator of all is suggesting a 50 bps rate cut and even if it is only restricted to 25 bps in the current policy the sheer room to cut rates which will be communicated in terms of commentary should keep the markets higher in the near term.
In our last update we had mentioned that Crude Oil looks very bullish and I hope our non clients have benefited from our view. Crude Oil has moved up from almost 44 to 52 almost up 18 percent and we continue to be bullish on crude oil in the near term. There could be many stocks from Oil & Gas space which will show better numbers in the coming days thanks to global crude prices stabilizing.
Sugar stocks have been correcting in the past few days but we do not see that upward trajectory has ended in sugar stocks or in raw sugar. As per our astro cycle analysis we continue to see good positive movement in the coming time in sugar and we see that in certain sugar stocks like Ugar this is a great price to buy and hold. NMDC also will do very well in the coming time and we recommend to hold on to that also.
Good Trading To You!