Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 12th Nov
First of all wishing all of you a very Happy New Year. May this new Year bring all of you abundant health, wealth peace, prosperity and all that you desire.
Now, many of you have been asking me to share my view for the next few months which I generally do at the start of the year so I will not go into much detail but will just highlight a few major points and keep in mind this is more actionable for an investor because the view and prediction would be for a few months. Currently we are in a situation where some of the market stewards I say “some” not all have become bearish and some have changed their stance to neutral weight on India but what I see is a sharp contrary picture to what most of these people see. Over the next few months there are many uncertainties that will play out in the Indian stock market so let us look at each one of them one by one.
The first immediate uncertainty is the Govt-RBI meeting and what we see is that both the RBI and Govt will find some sort of a middle ground to work with what we understand is that there could be some reserves that the RBI will allow and transfer to the Govt over the next few months so I do not see this as a flash point or something that will rattle the Indian stock markets. The next is the state elections and I do not see even this affecting Indian stock markets much because BJP losing MP and Rajasthan is in the price so I do not see that the election results also will spook the markets. The only major event what I see in the list of uncertainties is the general elections and even in that event I see NDA getting 223 so some sort of a coalition Govt will be formed which will be lead by the BJP I do not see any other combination that could play out but even in this case if it has to spook the markets will happen only around April of next year so we do have 4-5 months for this to play out so around end of march we will review what to do with the stocks that we have picked up but frankly to tell you all this news flow and events will come and go but as we have said time and again over the years investing makes money only and only under one key rule and that is buy cheap and sell expensive and right now regardless of all the noise that is playing out keep in mind that there are some select pockets where stock valuations are very cheap so regardless of all the noise just buy deep value stocks I am not painting the entire market with the same brush but there are some excellent names where valuations are dirt cheap and buying them will make you a lot of money over the next few months so regardless of what the news flow is buy companies which are having good managements, good earnings visibility, low or no debt and you will make good money regardless of what happens in this events. Some of the stocks that we have picked up I am sharing here. We did buy PFC at 73, Icici Bank at 295, Mah Scoters at 2100, Karnataka Bank at 93 so we see that going forward we should see good returns in them. Besides these stocks we also see some turn around in Tata Motors, Nalco so both these stocks also will give a good return over the next months. We have still not bought some stocks which we are interested in and at appropriate levels we will surely deploy into these stocks they are from rural sector plays that we see should give superb returns and once again keep in mind that these stocks will keep posting decent or good results so they will move higher regardless of what bad news hit the overall stock markets as I have mentioned that I do not see any major headwinds or bad news that has not been factored in the prices for now but surely even if something does hit the market in the stocks that we have mentioned we do not see any scope to lose money from short to medium term perspective.
From a technical analysis perspective next few months does not look like a problem on the charts for the time being at least. Nifty trend as per my prediction, view I do not see over the next few months much below 10000 levels and on the higher side near term we have a resistance around the 10800-11000 levels but looking at the overall structure of the market I do not see the resistance holding out for long time as I have said that all the negatives have been factored in the price and with the crude oil and rupee tail wind we should see the FII’s also coming back to the Indian stock markets and the Nifty so we see higher targets for Nifty in the coming days and weeks. I know some of the people who are predicting 14000-13000 on the Nifty well I am not personally not as optimistic as they are but overall from a stock specific perspective there are lot of opportunities and even Nifty will see higher targets prior to the general elections.
For the coming week Nifty has resistance around 10620 spot Nifty level and trend for the past one week has been that of consolidation. The sentiment on the street remains very negative and most traders are continuously short selling in Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures but if Nifty does move past 10620 spot Nifty level then we see Nifty moving higher in the next week and the move could be very sharp simply because a combination of factors which is that of short covering and FII’s buying. Over the next few days we could see some of the FII’s changing their India specific rating and that will bring fresh allocation to the Indian markets so a combination of both buying as well as that of short covering is highly likely if 10620 spot Nifty level is taken out. Till the time 10620 spot level is not taken out we could see some range bound movements like we have seen in this week but overall stock specific bullish movements will continue regardless of what the Nifty does (purely because there is deep value in individual stocks) In this coming week we could see a target 10850-11000 levels and bank nifty we could see a target of 26400 spot Nifty and Bank Nifty levels mentioned. The broad range for the market over the next 6 months should be between 8500-12500 give or take a few points but in between this range there could be some sharp volatile moves. More of a stock pickers market for the next few months than index returns.
If you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and trade. Please do not over trade and always keep your risk on check.
Good Trading To You!