Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 14th Jan 19
Nifty today’s trend was that of consolidation with a minor negative bias in the first half. For much of last week after we covered our shorts in Nifty last friday around 10630 spot Nifty levels, Nifty has been broadly within the trading range of 11000-10650 spot Nifty levels mentioned. As per my Nifty trend analysis, prediction, view I do not see much higher targets for Nifty going forward, sure I am not suggesting for one minute that Nifty can’t go a bit more higher sure it can but looking at the broader macro picture I do not see Nifty sustaining on the higher side. The same view is true for portfolios I don’t see many portfolios broadly speaking to give much returns from current levels at the same time there could be some stock specific returns but broadly most of the portfolios will not make much or any money from a post tax basis as per my view and prediction. Please once again keep in mind that my prediction and view is from a broad market perspective and Nifty and Bank Nifty perspective. There will or could be some specific stocks that could outperform the broader market I am not suggesting that everything will fall there well could be some specific stocks which could outperform the broader stock markets but from an overall portfolio and Nifty perspective I do not see much upside or returns especially from a post tax perspective from current levels over the next few months.
Crude Oil as per our prediction, view has been moving higher now, regular readers of this website are well aware that we had predicted that crude oil fall is overdone now and we do not see crude oil sustaining below 52 and Brent Crude oil has bounced back sharply in line with my predictions and view but please keep in mind that I am not suggesting that a fresh bullish trend has started in crude oil but all I am saying is that best of the macro support from crude oil is currently in the price so I do not see Brent crude oil now falling much below 50$/ bbl as we have seen at the same time I do not see any runaway in crude oil prices sure Brent crude oil now will broadly trade in a range but from an Indian stock market perspective we do not see Crude oil price acting as a tail wind it will be a minor headwind since prices as per my view will start stabilizing in a range but that will not imply that we will get tail winds from crude oil for the Indian stock markets to move higher.
Rupee too has made a bottom and the pullback is done now we are of the view that Rupee will move higher at least charts are indicating that rupee will keep moving higher and move towards 75 and even beyond 75. I know many of you are saying that since crude oil has cooled off and now is not heading for 84 dollars then why will rupee move lower, the answer to that lies in many small details like the fiscal deficit, if you see Govt of India will at some point in time announce some sort of a farm loan or agricultural sector write off now it may be in the form of a farm loan waiver or something else but the bottom line is it will have a fiscal impact, in addition to this we will also see lower revenues due to lower GST rates so the GST rates were supposed to reach average 1L Crs revenue per month and before the GST rate cuts were already falling short so when we run our calculations we see that we will have an collection of around 88K crs a month in good months so this will impact the fiscal and that in turn will increase the fiscal deficit and that in turn will push the rupee lower, also we pick up from our sources that Govt wants to see the rupee lower around 75 in order to boost exports which have been seeing a contraction so overall reasons will follow but the charts in USDINR pair are already indicating that we will see around 75 levels how much more from 75 that will see later but keep in mind I will not be surprised to see rupee at or around 80 in the coming time. Not suggesting that it will happen tomorrow but eventually we will see rupee below 75.
If you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management and then only trade, please do not over trade and always keep your risk in check.
Good Trading to You!