Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 18th Sep
On Friday there was a lot of expectation built into the price under the assumption that Govt of India will do and take many steps in order to curb the fall in the rupee but it turned out that Govt did not take many steps or rather any significant steps in order to curb the rupee depreciation at the end of the meeting frankly most of the officials did not know what measures should be taken most of them are still thinking that the spurt in crude oil prices is the actual reason for rupee fall and that the crude oil spike is just a short term phenomenon. There are two fundamental issues here which need to be understood the real problem is not the rupee the rupee is just adjusting to the major macro factors which are fiscal and current account deficit. The real problem actually is the fiscal deficit and current account deficit which are not under control for the time being. So let us understand why the fiscal deficit is not under control and is going out of hand each passing day. The Govt was estimating average of around 1L crores in terms of GST collection on a monthly basis but there is significant short fall in the GST collections and the problem which is aggravating is that GST collections are showing a declining trend which means that collections overall are falling instead of increasing so in such a scenario there is a net revenue shortfall and since there is sharp revenue shortfall Govt has not been able to meet that gap and hence Govt is not in a position to cut excise duty on petrol and diesel because that is what’s funding the revenue gap. So actually the problem is revenue shortfall for the Govt which is creating a fiscal deficit and that’s one of the major reasons for depreciation in the rupee. Now to add to this Crude oil has been moving higher consistently and exports has been flat which means that the current account deficit is also a problem and that too is pushing the rupee lower and the only solution to this is to reduce planned expenditure because crude oil will eventually move towards 82$ per barrel in Nymex which would mean that another 12-15% higher petrol cost from current prices. Anyways we will discuss this in more detail in some other post.
Though there are many fundamental factors which are negative it must be kept in mind that from a technical stand point Nifty trend remains down but pullbacks will keep coming so on pullbacks only at appropriate resistance areas and levels traders should enter in short selling positions. Our Prediction, View is we will see Nifty moving towards lower targets. The near term support area is around 10900. There could be some more choppy moves before we see a trending movement so keep trading in and out and be very nimble footed for the time being.
Good Trading To You!
Part of what we did
9/14/18, 9:06 AM – Glen Drago: Good morning
9/14/18, 9:06 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 2 parts positional shorts as told
9/14/18, 9:07 AM – Glen Drago: Bank Nifty hold 1 part positional short as told
9/14/18, 9:08 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty moving as per our prediction. Wait for msg to sell 3rd and 4th part.
9/14/18, 9:15 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty sell 3rd part
9/14/18, 9:16 AM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty 3rd part active
9/14/18, 1:25 PM – Glen Drago: Wait for msg to sell 4th part in Nifty
9/14/18, 1:30 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty sell 4th part
9/14/18, 1:30 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty 4 parts active
9/14/18, 1:30 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts
9/14/18, 1:30 PM – Glen Drago: Bank Nifty hold 1 part positional short
9/14/18, 1:30 PM – Glen Drago: If anything else is needed to be done will update
9/14/18, 1:31 PM – Glen Drago: From lower side we were expecting pullback till around 11500 more or less this pullback is done
9/14/18, 1:32 PM – Glen Drago: We expect to see choppy movement for next 1-3 trading days before next down move begins for lower side targets
9/14/18, 1:32 PM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
9/14/18, 1:32 PM – Glen Drago: Will update if anything has to be done
9/14/18, 3:28 PM – Glen Drago: Hold positions as told
9/14/18, 3:28 PM – Glen Drago: Enjoy your weekend
9/14/18, 4:00 PM – Glen Drago: GE Nifty Update http://www.mallavv.com/sgx-nifty/nifty-todays-trend-prediction-view-target-17th-sep.html
9/17/18, 9:13 AM – Glen Drago: Good morning
9/17/18, 9:13 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 4 parts positional shorts as told
9/17/18, 9:13 AM – Glen Drago: Bank Nifty hold 1 part positional short as told
9/17/18, 9:13 AM – Glen Drago: Will keep updating as and whenever anything needs to be done
9/17/18, 9:24 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty book profit in 4th part
9/17/18, 9:25 AM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty booked profits in 4th part
9/17/18, 9:25 AM – Glen Drago: Continue holding 3 parts positional shorts
9/17/18, 9:47 AM – Glen Drago: Bank Nifty hold 1 part positional short and Nifty hold 3 parts positional shorts. If anything has to be done will update.
9/17/18, 11:01 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty book profit in 3rd part
9/17/18, 11:01 AM – Glen Drago: Confirmation Nifty 3rd part booked for sell done at 11490 sep fut level
9/17/18, 11:02 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty hold 2 parts positional shorts as told
9/17/18, 11:03 AM – Glen Drago: Bank Nifty hold 1 part positional short as told
9/17/18, 11:04 AM – Glen Drago: Keep trading in and out as told.
9/17/18, 11:04 AM – Glen Drago: If anything else is needed to be done will update