Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 19th Dec
Nifty today was seen outperforming the world stock markets. Over the past few trading days S&P 500 and most of the global stock markets have sold off but Indian stock markets have been outperforming and have been very resilient but that does not imply that our markets will keep outperforming, the manner in which and the ferocity with which the world stock markets are selling off and breaking some important supports rather effortlessly seems to suggest that most global stock markets are heading lower sure they will be pullbacks from time to time and I am not suggesting for one minute that they won’t be pullbacks sure they will be pullbacks but the main trend in those markets have turned lower some are at the border line as of now but most of the world stock markets are near or less now in major down trend so in a background where most of the global stock markets are in strong down trends it is highly unlikely that Indian stock markets will continue to outperform or rather ignore them altogether. Please understand that there could still be some minor degree of outperformance from the Indian stock market I am not saying or predicting that there cant be any outperformance but I do not see a scenario where the global markets will keep falling and Indian markets will ignore those falls for a extended period of time it may happen for a few days but I don’t see the trend of decoupling from global stock markets taking place at least for the time being so it will be prudent to be very cautious at current levels even more because as per my view, prediction and also from a technical analysis stand point Nifty does have resistance in the area of 10900-11050 even assuming if this area is crossed next major resistance is hardly a few point higher so becoming cautious at current levels and not trading aggressively will be a prudent strategy to adopt. Be very careful here because if you get stuck then it could be a problem especially with the global background where stock markets around the world are breaking major support area rather easily. At the very same time remember that Indian markets can still move a bit more higher from current levels I don’t see them sustaining on the higher side because of the global background and that best of the crude oil fall is done and from here I see some bounce backs coming from time to time so although the trend in crude oil will be lower but the aggressive short trade that we were recommending around 86 Brent crude oil is a done deal and the easy money has been made in this trade for the time being from here on do expect bounce backs in crude oil not that trend will change to up from current down trend but surely there will be bounce backs also the dollar index is now heading towards 100 area (won’t reach there tomorrow morning but will get there) so this will also put pressure on the currency and we now have a target for USDINR pair of 73 so be very careful all these combinations are not supportive of an equity rally. An important point to keep in mind is that eventually we see Rupee moving much more lower than 75 eventually not in the near term reasons for them will be different from the current set of reaons but eventually dollar rupee pair will see above 75 levels and once again this will not be great for equties as an asset class.
Nifty today’s trend was bullish but we see currently a sideways trend between 11050-10750 spot Nifty levels. My prediction, view remains that there is significant resistance around current levels and since our current upside targets have been done it will be prudent to wait for the signal from the market as to what it wants to do. As usual if you are only trading on the basis of this post please use your own risk management, always keep your risk in check and please do not over trade.
Good Trading To You!