Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 19th Oct
Nifty opened gap up following positive global cues overnight from S&P 500 and post opening Nifty started sliding and kept sliding through the trading day. There were many traders who were seen aggressively short selling the markets today (most of the shorts have been created below 10550 spot levels), there was also some panic seen in NBFC’s and some other sectors but the important point to note is value stocks or rather stocks where deep value has emerged were largely unaffected by today’s fall. Our set of muti bagger stocks were stable and some of them were even bucking the trend and moving higher but that’s not the point for today’s update so since the fall has been one sided today and sharp let us once again look at the overall picture and review our view, prediction, trend and targets.
As per our analysis, view, prediction we see excellent value in select pockets and whenever markets do fall sharply it is a great time to buy and create portfolio in those particular names where deep value has emerged. The markets are giving some amazing opportunities which have not been seen for some time now so use these sharp pullbacks to create a top class portfolio and from a traders perspective we see that there could be some more volatility but during that volatility use the dips to buy and hold because we feel that the downside move does not have much steam remaining. Detailed wave counts and what to expect going forward with all projections have been given to our clients.
There are many investors who have been calling me over the past few days and have been asking me that is the bottom done? And my answer to them is that it really does not matter if the broader markets have bottomed or not as investors we should be chasing value and there are select pockets where deep value is available. Take a case in point in one of the multibaggers that we have bought despite todays fall the stock is still higher by 14% from our intiation price just a few days back. The results are on track and company is on track to report 1000-1200 EPS this year. The company is also though with a patent which will be a game changer so where is the risk involved here? Thanks to fall in the broader markets you are getting such deep value stocks at such throw away prices. Anyways from a Nifty and Bank Nifty perspective we feel markets are moving perfectly and exactly like the move which took place from —- to —- and today’s move exactly resembles the day of –0—18. So if we look at today’s fall and the preceding rise over the past few days is exactly a replica of what happened earlier. The exact same circumstances were present everyone was bearish, everyone were talking about lower targets no was looking at the picture from any logical stand point so all those ingredients that were present in the case study discussed with our clients the exact same is going on now so the resultant move was that bulls were rewarded. Once again I am saying that in the near term the headwinds which were present for Indian equities which were weakening rupee and rising crude oil are now turned into a tail wind. As per our analysis we have a situation where crude oil has toped out for the near term perspective and is now heading lower. Even from a rupee perspective the near term top for the rupee is done and we are of the view and we are predicting lower targets of 71-72 for rupee in the near term so both these factors will act as tail wind so the major macro problems which was one of the primary reasons for the fall are now. Besides these factors from a technical analysis perspective it is very clear that the current move is a part of the same correction that started at 11171 and the current leg of the fall is nothing but wave – . More details we will update in following updates.
Good Trading To You!