Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 1st Nov
Nifty trend today was very volatile. In the first half of the trading day Nifty Futures went lower and at one point there was a lot of talk that Nifty is heading for lower targets of 9700 and the sentiment on the street was to sell into any possible rise (well that has been the sentiment for sometime now that is to sell every rise possible in the market) but Nifty eventually moved higher and started zooming in line with my prediction, view and is heading for retracement targets for now. If certain conditions are meet Nifty could start a fresh trend and if that does take place then the best of the bulls will be stunned by the ferocity of the move so even if your personal view and outlook on the Nifty and Bank Nifty or the Indian stock market is negative and bearish please do keep appropriate stops in place and then only trade because if you do get stuck on the short side (that’s in case a fresh bullish trend begins) then in that case it will be very problematic for the trader who is short and eventually you would be forced to exit your short trade.
Let is now look at the overall picture once again. The general sentiment on the street remains very negative, most of the traders do not see Nifty Futures moving above 10600 area and everyone wants to short sell the market or Nifty or Bank Nifty the question is some trader says sell at 10400 some says sell at 10600 and the most optimistic guy says sell at 10900 but no trader is ready to buy and most of the investors are in fear that if they deploy capital now they will see lower levels and hence most investors are on the sidelines but there are some telling signs available on the screen and that is one of the reason I am saying if this turns out to be a bull move or a fresh bullish cycle then all logic and calculations will be useless and Nifty could just keep zooming higher with ferocity and speed (but I need confirmation for that) So coming back to the point that when I look at the screen there are too many counters that have been battered out of shape and reached good valuation area there are some at deep value which have not been present since past 3-5 years so in such a scenario where deep value is available bear markets or bearish phases dont begin they actually end and to add to this look at some of the stocks that we have picked up Icici Bank which bought at 295 is just few points away from its life time high and is probably heading for a target of 510 now I don’t see a scenario where Icici Bank will go to 510 and Nifty and Bank Nifty will fall to targets of 9700 or 9500 or 9000 as most of the stock market traders and investors are anticipating. The point to emphasize does not stop at Icici Bank alone. PSU Banks are giving superb results after a long time and breaking out one after another (which means turn around on the balance sheet) this phenomenon does not occur when bear markets are under way or at midpoint of the bear market (generally bearish phases end at such points and fresh up trend or bullish trend begin). There are other signs too for instance rupee being at the lowest area or multi year lows, crude oil just topping out recently so in short all the worst of the problems have been factored in and hence you have seen these current levels and prices.
So now if we have to sum it up in short there are some great value buying opportunities and I mean real good business with clear earnings visibility, low or no debt, good management and all the problems like crude oil, weak rupee being factored in the price now add to the cheap valuations earnings surprises on the upside that has been taking place like in the case of Bank of Baroda and Bank of Mah they were superb set of numbers when all the negatives are in the price and we are seeing much better set of numbers from the companies that is not usually the start or the mid point of a bearish phase or bear market it generally (not as a rule but generally) ends there and a fresh trend begins but let the Charts confirm the say. As of no whatever delivery we have bought is significantly outperforming the market and we are happy with the results that our counters are giving us.
Good Trading To You!