Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 28th Aug
Nifty today made yet another high and the Nifty trend has remained higher. As we have guided in our previous update we were expecting Nifty to come to 11225 area but we were certainly not expecting Nifty to touch 11700 area having said that it is important to keep in mind that we are not holding any shorts trades as of now. We have maintained a trade in and out system for the time being. For that matter on Friday we did take a long trade in Bank Nifty with a small stop loss and that has worked very well for us. As per our analysis Nifty trend remains up for the time being. Our view remains that unless we do not see a reversal confirmation there is no point in predicting lower targets and till that time one should either stay on sidelines or ride the trend.
So now let us once again take a look at the overall picture. It is very strange to see that Nifty is at life time highs and USDINR is at life time low. When we see the historical correlation factor whenever USDINR has depreciated we have always seen Nifty coming lower. There may be a few exceptions for some amount of time but never in the history of the markets has the currency depreciated all the way from 63 to 70 and yet the Nifty has not been affected. Many of you have called me and asked me how come this has happened. To be honest initially this was very confusing to me too but in reality what has happened is that the selling from the FII’s which used to take Nifty lower has been offset by the DII demand so whatever selling the FII’s used to do was previously not matched and now it is more than matched hence regardless and in spite of the FII’s selling Nifty has managed to move higher.
The same goes with crude oil in rupee terms historically whenever crude oil has moved higher in rupee terms we have always seen Nifty moving lower and yet the markets in the current instance has not moved lower rather it is at life time highs but keep in mind that this has happened or is happening on the back of liquidity not because earnings has picked up so if we take a look at yet another indicator which is the PE ratio for Nifty we are at life time highs and such hefty valuations has never sustained in the past and yet Nifty keeps moving higher or even if we take the correlation to some of the major international markets with him Nifty makes a good correlation even that leading indicator has not worked this time. Keep in mind that all of these indicators are correlations have been present historically and it is not that these indicators were just one time. If we take any and I mean any of the tops in the Indian stock market each and every single time these factors were in alignment but once again as we have said that this time it is not working.
So what is the important indicator to watch out for now since so many time tested indicators are showing something and Nifty is doing something else the answer to that would remains alternative investments so if we see the Indian Bond yields a breakout there would start moving much of the money coming to markets to fixed income side and there by the above factors would once again start playing their historical correlation but in the near term or from a traders perspective we do not see any sell signal so although this is certainly not the time to invest in stocks or Indian equities but till the time there is no reversal it would be good to wait on the sidelines or take stock specific trades.
Good Trading To You!
Part of what we did
8/23/18, 9:30 AM – Glen Drago: Good morning
8/23/18, 9:30 AM – Glen Drago: No open positions
8/23/18, 9:30 AM – Glen Drago: Wait on sidelines
8/23/18, 2:06 PM – Glen Drago: If anything has to be done will update
8/23/18, 2:06 PM – Glen Drago: Stay on sidelines
8/23/18, 2:07 PM – Glen Drago: Nifty could have another leg up pending
8/24/18, 9:09 AM – Glen Drago: Good morning
8/24/18, 9:10 AM – Glen Drago: No open positions
8/24/18, 9:10 AM – Glen Drago: Stay on sidelines
8/24/18, 9:10 AM – Glen Drago: Wait for reversal signal.
8/24/18, 9:18 AM – Glen Drago: Ashok ley sell 1 part at CMP and 2nd part at 138 SL 140 target 118
8/24/18, 9:21 AM – Glen Drago: Nifty can have a bit more upside but wait for reversal signal
8/24/18, 11:24 AM – Glen Drago: Ashok Ley Trail To 133.5/ Cost Spot Levels Mentioned
8/24/18, 12:40 PM – Glen Drago: Book profit and close Ashok ley
8/24/18, 12:40 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation booked Ashok ley
8/24/18, 12:41 PM – Glen Drago: Bank Nifty buy at CMP SL 27700 spot
8/24/18, 12:41 PM – Glen Drago: High risk trade
8/24/18, 12:43 PM – Glen Drago: Can buy 2nd part if comes to 27730 SL 27700 spot levels.
8/24/18, 12:43 PM – Glen Drago: It’s a small SL and high risk trade please keep that in mind
8/24/18, 1:51 PM – Glen Drago: Bank Nifty book 50 percent and trail remaining qty to 27730 spot levels
8/24/18, 1:52 PM – Glen Drago: Confirmation bank Nifty booked part
8/24/18, 1:52 PM – Glen Drago: Hold positions now 27730 SL spot levels
8/27/18, 9:10 AM – Glen Drago: Good morning
8/27/18, 9:10 AM – Glen Drago: Bank Nifty hold remaining qty longs
8/27/18, 9:10 AM – Glen Drago: Will update in sometime
8/27/18, 10:42 AM – Glen Drago: Mars will be going direct today. It’s important to note that the current move began when Mars turned retrograde. So we could see some more upside in Nifty from current levels but it’s important to wait for reversal signal which as of now is not present on the Nifty.
8/27/18, 10:42 AM – Glen Drago: Hold remaining qty bank nifty longs for now as told
8/27/18, 10:43 AM – Glen Drago: As and whenever we get sell signal we will update
8/27/18, 10:43 AM – Glen Drago: We may do some positional shorts in stocks if we get low risk entry point
8/27/18, 1:03 PM – Glen Drago: If anything else is needed to be done will update
8/27/18, 1:10 PM – Glen Drago: Bank Nifty Revise Trailing SL to 28140 Spot Level & Continue Holding remaining long qty as told