Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 30th Oct
Nifty today’s trend was bullish and Nifty moved perfectly in line with our view, prediction and has likely started a move for retracement targets but there is a great possibility and likely hood that Nifty could be at the cusp of a new bullish trend but we still need confirmation on that but if the bullish trend does begin now around this time cycle zone then we could see a very sharp rally into the next few days a rally which wills stun even the most bullish of people and in my own words I would like to call that move a “dimak side mea rakho move” because if you use too much of your brains then you will not be able to make the most of the rally so keep this in mind. The important point to keep in mind is that Nifty Futures was seen outperforming most world stock markets and if you see the pattern that’s being created it is clear that Nifty was seen leading on the upside when Nifty was moving higher from 9952-111760 and then was seen moving lower well before the other major world stock markets started falling so going by that we see that even this time too Nifty is leading the move. So in simple words we could see Nifty outperforming the world stock markets and also leading the move higher if this is a part of a new bullish trend, even if this is a counter trend rally even in that scenario we will see Nifty leading the pullback so please keep that in mind.
From an investors perspective we have been saying for the past few days and weeks to buy high quality names which have low debt or zero net debt, good management, good or decent earnings growth visibility, preferably good dividend payouts and most importantly cheap valuations now some of the stocks that were and are still fitting this criteria are doing amazingly well. Take the case in point of Icici bank. We have openly mentioned here that we did buy the stock at 295 and booked partially at 327 and now we are holding on to the stock. Today the stock did very well and was up by over 10% and now even though Bank Nifty and Nifty are just a bit off the recent lows Icici Bank is 18% higher from our buying price. The same goes with another stock PFC we did buy the stock at 73 and today we did see a high of 91 odd so once again even though Nifty is just where it is PFC is up by almost 25% from our buying price. There are many other stocks that we have which are doing exceptionally well and giving excellent returns. The point that I have been communicating is that cut the noise and hunt for deep value if you see deep value go and buy the stocks you will end up making good money the question then is you will make 10% or 50% but you will surely make good money from current levels (assuming you are buying deep value stocks). There are other names and even today we see good value buying opportunities which will give excellent returns over the next few months. So the bottom line is there is significantly more money to be made on the portfolio side than on the trading side. Please understand that I am not undermining the money that can be made on the trading side but the better risk reward picture is in favor of buying value or rather deep value which has been present since past few days and that’s the reason that regardless of the Nifty our portfolio has been moving higher and doing its bit which is much different from what the broader market is doing.
From a traders perspective we do not see risk favoring selling for now or even selling on rise for the time being will not be good trade as per my view, prediction and buying the dips and breakouts will be a better strategy for at least the retracement targets but as we have guided that if this move does turn out to be a fresh bullish trend then buying and holding will make much more money especially if you are in the right set of stocks and indices. With Crude Oil topped out for the near term and heading lower and also the Rupee seen the worst of its move in the near term we do not see these headwinds affecting the markets in the near term in addition to this there could be some measures by the Govt and RBI (well I know both have been not in the best of terms over the past few days ) but it does look like both the RBI and Govt combined are about to take some measures which could act as a booster for the markets and especially for Banking in the near term. (in addition to the measures suggested today there could be a few more or much more that time will tell )
Good Trading To You!