Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 4th Oct
Nifty today had a steep fall in the second half of the trading session after trading in a range of around 10900-11000 Nifty once again plunged towards the 10800 area but the important point to keep in mind is that Nifty since past 10 days is consistently bouncing from the support area of around 10800 spot Nifty level and hence we have been recommending to trade in and out and not adopt a buy and hold strategy nor are we advocating a sell and hold strategy for the time being and this strategy of trading in and out has been working well for us. Many traders were attributing the sharp fall in the Nifty to the depreciating rupee but as far as our analysis, view and prediction is concerned we do not feel that rupee has much more space to depreciate in the near term immediately from current prices. Our view, prediction on the rupee for longer term remains bullish for targets of 80 or around 82 but in the very near term we do not feel rupee will continue depreciating in the manner it has been just for the near term and that is because we do expect that Reserve Bank of India will take many or rather some steps in the credit policy which will halt the decline in the rupee but these measures will only be having some short term implications so for the next few weeks perspective we do not feel that rupee will depreciate much below 74 area. In the next 1-2 days rupee will hit a near term bottom and some sort of a consolidation is expected.
Crude Oil also has been rallying and Nymex Crude oil we were very bullish from levels of 28 and we had targets of 82 and at that point in time no one was feeling that Crude Oil will move much past 50 but here we are the targets in Crude Oil are done and now in the very near term we do not feel that Crude has much more room for higher side in the near term. The area of around 77-75 in Nymex will be acting as a resistance and we do not feel that area will be taken out in the near term.
With respect to Nifty Futures, as per our view, prediction Nifty now has important time cycle support areas very close by and even price and wave support zones are close by so combining both these factors show us time price support zone around the credit policy day. As per our Nifty analysis, view, prediction we do not feel that fresh short selling around lower levels should be done for the time being rather look to trade for retracement targets as risk reward is not in favor of fresh short selling now. Our view remains that trade in and out as of now. There are some important astrological factors also about to play out over the weekend so be very careful. With regards to the Credit Policy we feel that RBI will do something that will infuse liquidity in the system and that will be much more higher than what the street is anticipating so keep in mind that RBI could say or do something that could boost the markets in the near term. That could be some news flow on the Rupee front or may be some other news flow and that in turn could boost the Nifty.
Good Trading To You!