Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 5th Nov
Nifty trend today was bullish perfectly in line with my prediction, view and is heading for higher targets. Nifty closed the week in the green in style today and it is important to keep in mind that just last week we were at 10002 and in 5 trading days Nifty has recovered 560 points of the entire fall so the fall that took 8 weeks in just one week has recovered almost 32% of the fall in just 1 trading week so this again is a sign that a fresh bullish trend is starting but we still need confirmation on the same. It is not just the Nifty and our portfolio (bulk of the counters that we have bought are significantly outperforming the Nifty and broader markets and we continue to see these stocks leading the market though we will add some more fresh leaders in the next few days) so even the stocks are moving in line with our prediction and view but also rupee which we have been openly saying that we do not see rupee depreciating much below the 74 area so short selling rupee around 74-74.50 was a great trade and we had put out targets of 71-72 so once our target in USDINR pair is done we will review the trade and see where rupee is expected to move from there and crude oil also has been moving perfectly in line with our estimates, at a time when brent crude oil was trading at 86 and everyone was talking about targets of 100 we openly predicted that we do not see crude oil moving higher in the near term and if not a major top at least a near term top in Brent crude oil is in place at around 86 dollars per barrel so all the major indices and commodities are moving in line with our estimates.
Going forwards we see rupee moving towards our targets of 71-72 and Brent crude oil heading towards 66. Please keep in mind I am not at all suggesting that this will be a one sided move (it could be ) but I am not expecting a one sided move and there will be some minor pullbacks along the way but overall these will keep making lower tops and lower bottoms till the time these mentioned targets are not done. If there is any change in view in between we will update here but for the time being we do not see any deviation from what we have predicted.
so let us look at the way forwards from here.
Nifty zoomed today, yesterday we had clearly mentioned that above 10410 spot Nifty levels we could see some strong fund buying and some decent short covering. As per the open interest data there was some short covering but there is still lot of pending shorts in the system most of the traders who are currently short are keeping a stop loss of around 10600 spot Nifty levels so if this area is crossed we will see another round of short covering which will near term take Nifty higher. In addition to the short covering some value funds both from the FII and DII side are deploying cash into the Indian stock markets so even that could add to the buying pressure in the near term so please keep that in mind. MF’s which were facing redemption pressures have also stopped so DII selling pressure should also come down in the next few days.
Overall as per my view, prediction I have been saying buy deep value and that will get rewarded most of our stocks which we have picked up over the past 3 weeks have been outperforming the market and we could look into some fresh buying also in new counters so the point is that regardless of where the markets go from a near term perspective deep value should be bought because that is a long term wealth creation mantra that has worked all the time. The only question is how much returns will you end up making 10% or 30% or 50%. If your stock selection is good you should see 40-50% plus returns so keep that in mind and use panic and dips to accumulate deep value stocks much more money has to be made on the portfolio side in the next few months.
Good Trading To You!