Nifty Today’s Trend, Prediction, View, Target 8th Oct
Yet another day of mayhem on dalal street. Indian stock markets plunged lower and in speed despite RBI not cutting rates (which generally is positive) but in this current case yesterday the bond yields sold off and that put pressure on the Indian rupee which in turn put pressure on the Indian stock markets and that lead to a massive fall on the Nifty but bulk of the fall in Nifty was due to 4 stocks Reliance, HPCL, IOC, BPCL the remaining components of Nifty which included the Bank Nifty components were relatively stable and Icici Bank which we had bought at around 295 also did come under some bit of pressure but that’s not the point frankly, I was surprised with the ferocity, speed of the fall and the manner in which some of brokers were reacting. Much of the last 30 minutes of the fall as per my reports was attributed to brokers forcing clients to square up positions if they were unable to do immediate pay ins for the mark to mark losses in positions. Anyways that in a nut shell explains what happened on Friday. If we look at the markets even from a weekly perspective the week was one of the sharpest falls in recent times. So that brings us to the next question or rather the million dollar question Has a bear market started ? My answer to that is No I do not see this current leg of the fall as a bear market. I would only put this into a context of an extremely sharp correction. Let me explain.
The first leg of the fall started from 11171-9952 this fall was very sharp and after this fall Nifty went all the way to 11760 spot Nifty levels mentioned so the top of 11171 was decisively crossed and moved higher by almost 1.5 times of the length of wave A (11171-9952=1219. 1219*1.5=1828. 1828+9952= 11780, top was at 11760 spot Nifty levels ) so the retracement although took much more time than the fall from 11171-9952 did eventually move higher in proper wave counts . Now the current leg of the fall is actually a part of the same correction that started at 11171 so if we look at the fall from 11171-9952 was in the form of a-b-c and even now the fall is in the form of a-b-c-x-a-b-c so that means it is actually a part of the same corrective wave that started from 11171 as per Elliot and Neo wave concepts. (I have given detailed update on counts and projections to our clients )
So to sum it up from an wave perspective 10200 is the bottom and a gradual move to 11258 is expected in the immediate term but overall the move will be similar to that of the upmove that took place from 9952 onwards slowly (relative to the fall of 11171-9952). There are many other factors which I have explained in detail to our clients.
Good Trading To You!