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SGX Nifty 10th Aug 2016
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OVERALL VIEW ON THE NIFTY AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THIS POST. IF YOU ARE TRADING ONLY ON THE BASIS OF THIS POST PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE RISK MANAGEMENT AND THEN ONLY TRADE. PLEASE DO NOT OVER TRADE.
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures today closed in the red by 38 points at 8672. As per our Indian stock market analysis we are very clear about our counts and we see a resumption of the bear market starting anytime now in the next few days. As we have said that we do not see a correction but we will see a collapse in the coming time and our targets for the downside are unimaginable for now by anyone currently in the market. We will see a massive downside price and that will decimate all asset prices not only stocks and equities but it will be across all risk on asset prices. We do not think that a trailing stop loss system that most people seem to have adopted will work well as Nifty and global stock markets will not allow easy exit for longs. Few days back we have mentioned that we see Crude Oil now headed much higher from here and post 15th Sept 2016 we will see sharp upperside prices in Crude Oil which in turn will push global inflation higher and in that scenario we do not see central banks keeping low interest rates. All the central banks will be forced to raise rates significantly faster than anticipated by everyone today. So it will be a situation where we have high inflation and low growth that will be a genesis of the collapse though the collpase will start well before the data starts becoming public. It will not only be crude oil lead inflation but it will also be agri commodity based inflation worldwide and we see prices of raw sugar, wheat, milk, eggs going though the roof in the coming months especially post 12th Oct 2016 we see prices of these commodities zooming higher much higher and that too will force the inflation higher. There could be other negative news also which could start the fall which could arise from China so please do not think that this inflation and low growth problem will b a stand alone problem.
Sugar stocks were down today on some news that Govt is raiding some sugar mills who are holding stock we do not think that all this news will help to bring the raw sugar prices lower. We did book 50% profits in Ugar sugar at 69-70 and In Eid Parry around 264 and also yesterday 50% in Tata Coffee but overall we still remain positive on the sector. Nifty we see some dangerous patterns being formed so be careful in longs.
Good Trading To You!