SGX Nifty 10th Oct 2016

SGX Nifty

LTP  8,576.00   -128.00   -1.49% High 8,710.00 Low 8,546.50

SGX Nifty

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SGX Nifty 10th Oct 2016

SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures was trading in a range of 8810-8555 the range of the last week and as per our analysis we see some more volatility in the coming days, do expect to see the current divergences to start expanding.

We do not expect any significant upside movements  and we do not see 9200 as most traders are expecting. We could see some interim bullishness on Monday or early Thursday and to play such days we have taken some tactical trades but once this pullback is done we see Nifty and all the global stock markets starting a fall towards the end of this month or may be the first week of Nov 2016. In this immediate term we expect Nifty to move lower and then also fall below the current swing lows also and finally will make a low much lower from current prices.
Please keep in mind that in between during these moves which are being played out we will see sharp pullbacks which will stun most traders so trading in and out would be good, sharp volatility will be there, do not expect one side movements hence please trade accordingly. We will keep taking tactical trades like the one we took a few days back in which we exited our shorts and took BTST position and we will keep doing the same as and when we see a trading opportunity and we may or  may not inform the same here.  If you are trading only on the basis of this post please use appropriate risk management and then only trade.
Please keep in mind that we are not duty bound to inform all our trades or investments free of cost here, however once again let me reiterate again we may choose to inform our trades from time to time.

Sugar sector remains a buy on dips and we like Renuka and Ugar sugar in that space. Ugar we had initiated at 20-22 then we booked part at 70 and now have reentered at 38. We feel that Ugar sugar will do very well in the coming time and the Q2 results also are expected to be above estimates do keep a watch on Ugar sugar. Crude Oil Futures have been doing very well in line with what we have been expecting it to do. We have mentioned in our past updates also that longer term crude oil is now in a fresh bullish cycle and we see crude oil prices heading higher from here also heading towards the 60$/bbl mark and eventually even to 72$/bbl but in the near term there could be some minor pullback so on a major pullback we will be buying again.  Keep in mind that we do not see Crude Oil Futures breaking below the 38$ mark for now and on any sharp panic which could happen in the next few trading days we suggest buying and accumulating in a staggered manner. Major support for crude oil is at 41-43$/bbl.

Silver and Gold both have cracked in this week in line with what we were expecting and we have started buying Silver in small tranches. Silver we had bought and accumulated between 32K onwards till 40K then we booked at around 47-48K and now we are reentering our  bullish trade.  We do not see any significant downside in Silver prices and we expect silver to move higher over time. Please keep in mind that near term some volatility is expected in silver so buy only in a staggered manner.  Gold too has a good support of 1244 and till the time 1244 is held we see prices could move higher towards 1380-1350 area.

We have short listed our new multi bagger call and we are now in final stages of identifying the counter. If we do get that final update then we will update our PAS clients about the stock. Again we may choose to write that counter’s name and details  in public domain or may opt not to disclose the details of the same as of now.

Good Trading To You!

96 thoughts on “SGX Nifty 10th Oct 2016

  1. Sir, thanks for the detailed update. I was checking Dow Jones charts and it looks like it’s now poised for some big move. Primarily it looks to be on downside as its forming classical lower tips and bottoms. But in worst case if does close above 18400 do you think one has to exit all sorry positions?

    Regards

    Anpat2015

  2. nifty at 7200 after touching 6900, these are not the levels to buy.

    nifty at 7500, these are not the levels to buy.

    nifty at 7800, these are not levels to buy.

    nifty at 8100, these are not levels to buy.

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    nifty at 8800, these are not levels to buy

    nifty at 9000, these are not levels to buy.

    your previous posts say it all. no offense… just reiterating what I read from ur blog.

    सच्चाई हमेशा कड़वी होती है ग्लेन साहेब

    1. Dear Sir,

      Your observations are incorrect. You may please check the website as all records are available.
      We were in buying from 7200 onwards and were buying aggressively till 7800, we booked all longs bought from 7800-8000 and we made a mistake of selling early from 8000 levels.

      1. @nifty ka sataya hua trader:
        If you read jan-mar post, Sir had clearly advised to buy from 7300-6900 levels and asked later to book profits around 7900 levels. You are posting incorrect info here. He has to be given credit for upmove which hardly anyone was predicting, in fact he stated 8800-9000 levels in his Feb posts, Nifty has topped at 8960 recently. But yes he himself went against his own analysis and reverted his trade in between itself which he has said here as a mistake.

        Regards
        Anpat2015

        1. Hi:

          Correction.. glen Baught at 7300-7400 levels first 4 parts. Markets tanked to 6900 ish and then we were squeezed for margins and were asked to buy more at 6900-7000 levels. Regarding exits a feed parts were exited at 7400-7500 and a few at 7600-7700 and then the shorting began again at 7700 ish levels all the way to 8000.

          Please correct me if I am wrong.

          1. Dear Sir,

            Details of the trades are as follows which are available for reference in the public domain.

            7410,7250,7150,7050 these were our positional entry done.

            Booking was done at 7650,7790,7850,7960

            IDBI Bought At 53,51 Booked at 64,71

            In addition to this there were 9 BTST & Intraday trades taken during that phase which earned us avg of 42 points per trade.

  3. Your observations are long and repetitive in nature.There is nothing new to read except that you maintain your bearish stance.The quality of conversation taking place in this blog is junk.I would suggest you to keep your observations as well your replies… short & crisp .

  4. If those hv problem don’t visit blog but don’t give ur suggestions which r offensive in nature
    Don’t make trouble for other glen sir is giving best explanation this time his bearish stand is for long time that is different thing
    May be some big crash is in the store

  5. Do u know if market crash then some stock wipe out 70-90% it means if u taken funding 30000 on one lakh ur whole portfolio become zero better be safe with safe guard some time glen sir become rude but that natural after listening so much non sense just see graph of axisbank no support after breaking trend line so b thankful to glen if market crash

  6. Glen bhai aap nifty par bullish view ya bearish view kaise dete hai, nifty options data dekh kar ya chart dekh kar. Kyonki aap FII aur DII KI buy – sell figure Ko toh mante hi nahi.

  7. I bet you Mr Glenn just reading the fundamentals across the world does not say that crash is now itself but it will be delayed by end 2017 or early 2017. But you are missing most of the trades to earn and for ur clients. This is just an advise. Look at the world best trader currently they trade in and out and not just by sticking to crash word and even they have more experience than you that they know crash is there but not now which you predict. So its just an advise what i feel. You can do much much better than this.

    1. Dear Sir,

      1) Fundamentals is a part of my analysis not the only one. Your contention is misplaced.
      2) FYI we have been taking tactical trades from time to time. On Thursday we had exited shorts and on friday we did buy for BTST which we booked today at 8760 Oct Fut levels/
      3) We have been trading in and out.

  8. Nov 2nd, FED could not raise interest rates, would raise in Dec, in case Trump win’s, so many unexpected things would be seen in upcoing 2017.

  9. Nov 2nd, FED could not raise interest rates, would raise in Dec, in case Trump win’s, so many unexpected things would be seen in upcoming 2017.

  10. Do u still see collapse in 2016 or just a correction wil come as u mentioned there will be no exit.please do mention 2016 or 2017?

  11. Sirji, thanks for your kind words. Except IT stocks majority of stocks in overbought esp tvs motor igl asianpaint maruti ceat IOC bpcl hpcl jsw century pcj to name a few. Just opening up the opportunities to short at appropriate moment. Today had a great day in suntv and tvs short trades. Sirji igl has 5 rising windows in 60 mins charts and maruti has 5 rising windows since your recommendation to go long on nifty b-day 28 Feb. Maruti I have shorted today at 3.25 pm as stbt at 5741. Max I m expecting on upside 5680 5720 5830 5880 5920 6020 and I will be pyramiding @ every 10% advance. Tvs 4 lots short @ 390. Max 400 420 on upside. We shall have a chat tomorrow 2 pm if you allow. Thanking you, Sir

  12. Sir,
    We need to monitor Dow Jones movements. Dow bullish again as Trump campaign is affected. Dow closing above 18400 will mean a fresh rally in Dow. As Indian markets closed for 2 days it’s good we can have wait and watch game.

    Regards
    Anpat2015

  13. Hi sir,

    Wish you and your family a very happy dusshera. May God bless you all with health and wealth in abundance.

    Regards
    Anpat2015

  14. Hi:

    While I have been advocating longs for a long time now, I think its time to get more cautious. Market setup looks like too many longs and any trigger can squeeze participants.

    I am still not going short, as I dont like playing shorts, but I have reduced long exposures and will continue to do so.

    Funny enough, while I have been dead against Glens views, it NOW looks like the current market setup begs one to be cautious. A flash crash cannot be ruled out, never say never.. my two bits on how the market feels right now.

  15. If world is to take advantage of India’s demographic gift of youth population, how can India’s market be sideways or down?

  16. Sir,
    Had bought Oriental bank PE a week back, exited today at 30% profit. Not able to judge if there would be a straight fall from here, expecting some minor pullback, not sure though. On rise would be again shorting. Thanks

    Regards
    Anpat2015

  17. In this immediate term we expect Nifty to move lower and then also fall below the current swing lows also

    Exactly as you said…

    But ugar sugar also down 5 %

  18. Once again 8555 support holds, will this break this time? I guess this is third attempt to hit 8555 so should go through. Glen, what say?

  19. Sir, Do you expect a straight fall from here or expect a bounce back. I am expecting Nifty will move again upwards till 8670/8700 and will start falling again and thtn break strong support of 8530/8550. Do you agree or you see Nifty breaking 8530 in the current move itself?

    Regards
    Anpat2015

  20. Sirji, all the stocks I mentioned before two days corrected today, all, wrt Monday close. Severe was suntv and century. Sir I feel maruti is still 0B. Did stbt at 3.28 pm in maruti, indusind, igl, petronet, ultracem and coal India. Some stocks like divis ntpc boi and Bob are near short-term support levels. Ntpc has tgt of 196. Waiting for hammer EOD.

  21. As per your analysis, is speed of current decline fast to pierce 8000 on downside or there can be some more time for down move.

  22. Global growth concerns return. China Sept exports down 10%y/y. Yuan drops to 6yr lows. Stocks drop globally. US market breaks Trendline supp.
    Funny to see latest narratives & reasoning on Nifty. on TV

  23. Where is Mr vaibhav. He had mentioned nifty won’t touch 8550 in next 2 years. See what has happened. Hahahaha still ur in hope of 9000 it seems

  24. Mr. Vaibhav now Underground. When things go against Mr. Vaibhav where is the 9200 levels that you were telling? Your challenge of 8550 not breaking for 2 years also down the drain. Please henceforth refrain from your childish language and behavior.

  25. From so long Mr. Vaibhav was yelling 9000 sure then 9200 sure. I challenge you Glen Sir etc etc. Now he ran away. Giving your view or talking is one part and constantly pointing fingers is another. Has anyone seen MSL? Has Mr. Vaibhav congratulated Glen Sir Identification? No but if he goes wrong then vaibhav will come and yell and then talk absolute bull shit like I challenge 8550 will not break. I challenge 9200 now. Where is it Mr. Vaibhav? Agree with Premal please get lost from this website. Moderator request you to please block Mr. Vaibhav.

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