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SGX Nifty 11th Aug 2016
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OVERALL VIEW ON THE NIFTY AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THIS POST. IF YOU ARE TRADING ONLY ON THE BASIS OF THIS POST PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE RISK MANAGEMENT AND THEN ONLY TRADE. PLEASE DO NOT OVER TRADE.
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures today was seen lower by almost 120 points. As per our Indian stock market analysis / Nifty Futures tips we maintain our view that the bear market that started on 4th March 2015 is not yet completed and there is significant downside remaining in the Indian stock markets and the Global stock markets. We see the down leg of the rally starting anytime now in the next few days and we expect prices to head significantly lower from here. In fact the targets what we see for this down move are not even being imagined by most if not all market participants as of today. Most people very well know that at 7000 levels entire janta was bearish and talking about 6500 and 6300 however few months ahead they all are talking about 9000 levels. The only real thing that has changed in the market is that valuations have become expensive from reasonable levels seen a few months back and even at that time we had clearly predicted it will be a bina kaarran tezi. Yes it was a bina karran tezi with very little news flow supporting the market or even earnings growth not supporting the market but yet the prices have reached alsmot to extreme high in terms of valuations and we do not think that anyone will be making any money by buying here at current prices. We also maintain that Banking stocks will lead the down move and they have been showing some signs of under performance over the past few days. Some PSU banks that we will be selling will be collapsing by at least around 50% from current prices and we see great opportunity in shorting them. We also see a great opportunity in being long in one commodity that will zoom significantly higher and we are looking for proxy to play that sharp bullish move. We will provide more details to our clients at appropriate time.
As far as our portfolio is concerned we will be doing some churning there too. As we have told you that few days back we did book Tata Coffee 50% at around 127 and also booked part in Ugar sugar at 69-70 and also in Eid Parry. We maintain our bullish view on MSL as we see a great trigger for the stock in the next few months and we can expect much more upper side prices from here also. We know the stock has given 60 percent return from our initiation price and we still see value in the stock but when to buy more we will keep updating our clients on the same.
Crude Oil will be starting a bullish cycle in the next few days and we can see the price heading significantly higher from here. So that in turn will create much problem for India and most other commodity importing countries. The fisc is going to run into problem and also the CAD will also see issues. In addition to this we will also see sharp rise in inflation not only in India but across the world. We expect agri commodities to do very well in the coming time.
Good Trading To You!