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SGX Nifty 16th June 2016
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OVERALL VIEW ON THE NIFTY AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THIS POST. IF YOU ARE TRADING ONLY ON THE BASIS OF THIS POST PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE RISK MANAGEMENT AND THEN ONLY TRADE.
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures staged another recovery from lower levels today but the overall range for Nifty is the same for now. Overall Nifty Futures has more or less done the top and currently is completing a time cycle requirement hence we as said before also that although the price is done there could be some more time pass going on here with Nifty being a out performer for the next few trading days and that is exactly what we have seen. Although Global markets have been breaking down Nifty has been resilient for the time being but we do not expect that to play out for long. In the coming time we see Nifty having a very sharp fall and that fall will surely stun most of the traders and investors (it may or may not take some more time but when the fall does come everything will just fall fast) The wave pattern that will be playing out will not honor many support zones and right now as per our analysis we see that this is nothing but a bull trap.
This is what we had mentioned a few days back
When all the world markets start falling Nifty may buck the trend or outperform for a few days but after 3-4 trading days Nifty will start playing catch up with the falling global indices and we do not expect Nifty to hold out.
Most global markets have started signalling a breakdown in the trend and we expect even Nifty to follow them in some time. Nifty could do some more time pass around these levels and then start to fall from these prices but when the fall begins it will play catch up with the Global markets as the fall will be steep and in just a few trading days Nifty will cover up the out performance and then start under performing the Global benchmark indices. Please keep that in mind. Nifty will under perform the Global markets after this phase of out performance ends. We are taking into reference Global markets because the rally at the end of the day has been a global rally and not a local rally hence we have to look into a context of Global set up. The Global set up for EM’s and especially India do not look good at all and all our indicators are clearly showing that it is just a matter of time before the collapse will take place.
Investors must remain invested in sugar stocks as told and other stocks recommended by us like Tata Coffee, MSL as we see all of them continuing to do very well even though the Nifty will collapse. We see agri commodities doing very well in the coming time and we see food inflation rising sharply over the next few months. Inflation for next month may be flattish due to a base effect but on ground the reality will be that food inflation and services inflation will zoom ahead. This there by will result in Reserve Bank not cutting rates further for this year at least. Other than the stocks we have mentioned we do not recommend to hold any positions in delivery / investments. Banking sector will be taking a big hit shortly (astro cycle shows some major problem is coming for Banks in India ) and NPA’s will be seen zooming.
Good Trading To You!