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SGX Nifty 18th Aug 2016
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OVERALL VIEW ON THE NIFTY AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THIS POST. IF YOU ARE TRADING ONLY ON THE BASIS OF THIS POST PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE RISK MANAGEMENT AND THEN ONLY TRADE. PLEASE DO NOT OVER TRADE.
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures today continued its consolidation and movement within a small range with a negative bias. As per our Nifty Futures tips / Indian stock market analysis we reiterate we see the resumption of the bear market that started on 4th March 2015 and in this leg of the current down move we will see significantly lower prices on the downside. Many investors and traders feel that what we see is a correction but we do not see any correction we see a massive collapse and that will give us much more lower levels and much better valuations to buy. Yesterday in the evening post our markets had shut UK came out with its inflation numbers and that inflation number was the highest since Nov 2014. As we have predicted that we now see a worldwide rising inflation trend and that will not allow central banks to keep low interest rates or negative interest rates but it will be forced to increase rates at a much faster rate than anyone anticipates it as of today.
Today FED event will start commentary about rise in interest rates in the next 1-2 months. FED as per our understanding in expected to start giving out signals to the market that it will raise rates anytime that is what we expect from the commentary today and although it will say that it will remain accommodative even after the rate hike we do not see that happening as FED will be forced to raise rates much faster than anticipated by most people or analyst around the world. Please keep that in mind.
Sugar stocks have seen some downward pressure in the past few trading sessions but we were expecting that it could be a bit soft for a few days and hence we had told our clients to book part in Ugar sugar at 69-70 which we had initiated at 22-23 and also we had booked part qty around 265-269 area. Now we are readjusting our sugar positions so all details have been given to our clients and if you are a investor then please watch out as per your own risk management systems. We will be doing some tactical trading in sugar stocks in the near term. What to buy? When to buy? where to buy ? Or where to book profit ? all details will be given to our clients live during market hours.
Crude Oil has been doing very well and we are bullish in the near term on crude oil one panic on the lower side is possible though but it will overall now move higher so on dips we could see some buying in crude oil. There a many people who are thinking of buying Jet and Indigo (Inter Globe Aviation) but we do not think that this is the price and time to buy them as they will see massive margin pressures in the coming days. One of the leading contributor to that would be sharp rise in crude oil so aviation stocks will not do well in the near term.
Good Trading To You!