SGX Nifty 18th May 2016

SGX Nifty

LTP  8,576.00   -128.00   -1.49% High 8,710.00 Low 8,546.50

SGX Nifty

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SGX Nifty 18th May 2016

SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures opened higher today and started moving higher and went all the way to 7940 (Nifty 50 spot levels mentioned) but in the second half Nifty Futures gave up most of its gains to close just marginally in the green. Finally Nifty closed the day up by around 20 points at 7881. As per our Nifty Futures Tips / Nifty Prediction we once again are saying that our Nifty view is not for the next 1-2 trading days but for the next few months. The Nifty Chart patterns that have already formed do not show any strength on the higher side and that is the reason Nifty even after 6 weeks has not been able to cross 8000 levels. Regular readers and clients of this website will recall that Nifty touched 7800 almost six weeks back but since then we have been in a range bound movement and in our studies we see this area of consolidation as a distribution area if for one minute we consider that this is really a start of a new bull market which we do not feel so but if we consider for the sake of argument then we do not see such low volumes on higher side and such stagnation. Since this is a distribution area we are seeing sideways movements. What makes us think that this is a distribution? Well if we take multiple systems like volumes on advances, speed of internal waves or our unique astro cycles or our time tested sentiment indicators all of them are showing us that Nifty Futures is currently in a distribution phase and once this distribution phase is over we will see Nifty Futures resuming the down move. We do see a significant downside level from here and only after those lower side levels do come we will get back into buying positions for higher side targets but for the moment we do not expect Nifty to sustain on the higher side and we see much lower levels from here.

Also keep in mind that the current rally that started on 29th Feb 2016 has been a global rally and Indian Stock Markets have not rallied alone on a stand alone basis.  So when we do look at the international Stock Markets charts they too are showing very clear signs of fatigue and tiredness on the higher sides and we have already seen breakdown signs in some of those stock markets also.  In addition to the charts when we do look at VIX index it does show us that Global stock market participants have taken a extremely complacent view on risk on assets for the time being and in our historical back testing whenever we have seen such indicators with such charts they have always lead to larger degree corrections or falls in the Global equities space.

Sugar stocks will continue doing well during this time frame and hence we do recommended to accumulate Ugar sugar, Renuka sugar, Eid Parry and Bajaj Hindustan on dips. Wait for our update to reenter Kesoram and Nmdc.  Also buy and hold 500266 Maharashtra Scooters Ltd and Tata Coffee all these stocks will do very well in the coming time.

Good Trading To You!

Today’s Chat Transcript

[09:00, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Gm
[09:00, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Positions as told till next update. Also holding 1 part stbt trade in Nifty May Fut now
[09:55, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[12:15, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Wait for msg to sell more
[12:50, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Positions as told till next update. Also holding 1 part stbt trade in Nifty May Fut now
[12:50, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: hold positions as told
[12:50, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: wait for msg to add more
[13:49, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: wait for msg to add more
[15:01, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Positions as told till next update. Also holding 1 part stbt trade in Nifty May Fut now
[15:07, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: nothing to be done for today
[15:07, 17/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: see tomorrow morning