SGX Nifty 1st June 2015

SGX Nifty Futures

 

-60.03

Index Last High Low
Nifty Future Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response
Nifty Future Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response
CNX Nifty Spot 7879.50 7880.20 7837.70

 

SGX Nifty 1st June 2015

Crude Oil has given a breakout once again (consolidation / pullback is over and now its resuming it’s up trend ) in this current round is headed for 63.81 overall Nymex crude oil will touch 72 $/BBL within this year. Overall range for crude oil will be 44-72 dollars. Dow break below 17900 will take it to 17579. If 17509 breaks then watch blood bath in world markets. Next few days are very critical both in terms of price and time cycles and it will really pay to keep patience and trade.

Coming back to SGX Nifty we are very clear that SGX Nifty Trend is down and will see significant lower prices by early Aug 2015 or late July 2015 the only question is that SGX Nifty halts its pullback around 2nd June near 8550 or around 15th June around 8672-8750. It’s going to be extremely choppy no clear trend will be there and counter trend movements will keep coming every one to four trading days. During such time it will be prudent to follow strict risk management procedures and keep booking profits at regular intervals. (When what to do where to do etc) details to clients. For now it’s will be better to trade in light quantity and wait for this choppy movement to come to a end (till 11th June we expect this choppy movement)

SGX Nifty constituents 1st June 2015 and Reserve Bank Of India Credit Policy 2nd June 2015

Within SGX Nifty constituents Bank Nifty may outperform till 2nd June (most people are expecting a rate cut but looking at USDINR we don’t see scope for rate cut frankly, unless and until USDINR nears 63.20 rate cut won’t come) Also if we go by past history Rajan is a proactive man and does not wait for credit policy day to cut rates he has been categorical that if situation calls for it then he will cut rates outside of the policy meet. So going by his nature and behavior the unsaid is that No Change In Policy but we will still see if Reserve Bank pushes Rupee higher on Monday and Tuesday morning to near 63.20 Spot.

If rate cut comes rupee will depreciate super fast towards 65.20 and SGX Nifty will tank because of rupee depreciation if rate cut does not come markets will get disappointed and SGX Nifty will crash. Either ways policy event won’t favor bulls beyond a point and on 2nd June 2015 Fulll moon along with other astrological configurations “Uppar neche up and down round and round “ is very likely.

Will update more details later. For details of our services feel free to call me on 9222294707

Good Trading To You!

SGX Nifty 1st June 2015

SGX Nifty Trend was bullish. Nifty today after opening at 8327 SGX Nifty first went lower to 8305 and then started rallying and made a high of 8444 finally Nifty closed at 8433 up 115 points. (Nifty Spot Levels Mentioned) SGX Nifty Trend is sideways. Minor Trend is sideways and major trend is down. We expect Nifty tomorrow to face resistance at 8490-8525 Spot. Yesterday (28th May 2015) we booked profit in Nifty June 8600 Put and booked small profit in Nifty June 8400 Put we had a trailing stop loss of 8302 Spot Nifty that got triggered. We had mentioned in our message that unless and until Nifty Spot does not break 8261 gates for 7800-7900 will not open. As per our SGX Nifty Prediction and Nifty Trend we expect Nifty to halt rally between 8490-8525 Spot levels mentioned and then begin fall towards 7800-7900. Even in the event of 8525 getting crossed Nifty has stiff resistance a little higher and we don’t expect Nifty to cross them. Overall Q4 numbers were very bad and we expect Q1 FY16 numbers to be even worse than Q4 numbers that have come out.

As per time cycle between 1-3rd June 2015 will be extremely volatile. Bank Nifty may see wild swings of 500-700 points on both sides between these dates. Overall we are not bullish and we are clear that this is a pullback and major trend remains down. As far as Nifty is concerned we could see 150 points swings on both sides. It would be better to trade via options rather than trading futures we are suggesting this purely from a risk management perspective. As per Financial astrology 1-3rd June is a real danger zone there are way too many danger signals Mercury retrograde mid point, Full moon in Scorpio and there its going to meet planet of reduction (Saturn) all these factors create sudden moves and trends don’t last long. So the strategy to adopt will be enter in take profit and get out at least for three days. Extreme caution is advised.

 

If we compare current market closing to trailing valuations we are just 2 percent away from trailing earnings valuations that were there at 9100. So in short in terms of trailing valuations Nifty has not even started correction. Most analysts or fund managers are calling the current bad Q4 numbers a blip (we don’t think it’s a blip it is actually reflecting the on ground situation) and earnings won’t shape up or improve from here on as per our analysis at least not for next 6-9 months. Maruti, ITC and Bharti Airtel were leading the Nifty 50 today while Gail and Dr Reddy’s was under performing Nifty 50 today. Joke of the day was GDP grew by 7.5% (Tax collection down, revenue deficit up and these people want us to believe GDP grew at 7.5%).

USDINR 1st June 2015

Anyways next week we have the Reserve Bank of India presenting it’s credit policy. Rate cut is only possible if USDINR nears 63.20 spot we don’t see rate cut happening otherwise and after the Reserve Bank of India ‘s credit policy on 2nd June 2015 we expect the major trend which is down to resume. We expect the Fed to start raising interest rates after July 2015, when that happens Rupee will depreciate much more faster vs US $Overall we see and maintain a target of 72 for USDINR and that too within this financial year.

Sugar Sector Update

Buy and Hold Bajaj Hindustan, Renuka Sugar and Eid Parry all these stocks will blast after 10th July 2015. Sugar sector will be one of the top performing sectors in next 3 years. We reiterate our stance as per financial astrology bottom for sugar and most agri commodities will happen in the next two to six months.

SGX Nifty and Bank Nifty updates will be given as and when possible. For details of our advisory services or HNI broking services feel free to call me on 9222294707

Good Trading To You!