SGX Nifty 20th July 2015

SGX Nifty

74.30

Index Last High Low
Nifty Future Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response
Nifty Future Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response Error parsing: Query returned empty response
CNX Nifty Spot 7879.50 7880.20 7837.70

 

SGX Nifty / Nifty Trend / Nifty Prediction / Stock Market Tips for 20th July 2015

SGX Nifty / Nifty Trend today was flat. BHEL, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Ultratech Cements, Infy, ITC, Vedanta, Power grid, Tata Steel and Idea were in the green while Asian Paints, HDFC Ltd, Coal India Ltd, Wipro, Ambuja Cements, ZEEL, Hind Uniliver, Kotak Bank, Yes Bank and Axis Bank were in the red today.

Nifty / Stock Market inversion has been confirmed and almost completed and the down cycle started on 4th March 2015 will resume anytime now. Details of inversion have been given on 2nd July 2015 post in which we have mentioned clearly that Nifty will top between 8550-8672. Upper range is almost done with a minor variable top will be around these levels. Nifty Major Trend remains down while minor trend is neutral. Negative divergences were seen today (17th July 2015) In Bank Nifty components and we are clear as per our analysis that this pullback will end now and we will see resumption of down cycle started on 4th March 2015. Since Inversion has occurred both price and time get extended on the down side. (Targets and levels have been communicated to clients) Till now reported Q1 numbers have been below estimates and that keeps pushing trailing valuations higher. With monsoon already in deficit now and there are no signs of revival we expect food inflation to start picking up putting pressure on overall inflation and thereby we do not expect any further rates in Aug 2015 when Reserve Bank of India announces its credit policy. Fed has been amply clear that they will be increasing rates in 2015 and we expect it to begin in September. This will put pressure on the INR and we see INR heading towards 68-72 within this financial year. Monsoon session of Parliament we do not expect any work to be done as opposition will gun for resignation of NDA. Politically BJP is not in a position to force resignations and if they do not resign opposition will not let the house function so in a nut shell no business will be conducted. Going forward it is now a given that growth will not pick up any time before Q4 this year so valuations will remain stretched the only way they will come down will be by way of correction in prices. With split B wave coming to a end and inversion that is what we are expecting. Nifty topping out around these levels and significant fall to resume.

Nifty will top around current levels and resume down cycle started on 4th March 2015. Use this pullback to exit trading longs and reduce exposure in the Stock Market. Steep valuations, High Inflation and low growth is a dangerous cocktail It always has left a bad hang over. Ensure you get out before the party ends.

Sugar Sector Update

Next week onwards we should start seeing international Raw sugar prices to start moving higher and that will boost local sugar companies profitability. Reiterate Buy and Hold Sugar Sector. Bajaj Hindustan, Renuka Sugar and EID Parry will give 5 X returns over next 3 years till 2019. Sugar sector in India will be decontrolled by Dec 2016. As of now we are at the bottom of the cycle and from here on a massive bull market will begin in sugar stocks and raw sugar. Most agro commodities will start running up from the second half of this year that includes Cotton, Coffee and Soybean.

Crude Oil Update

Nymex Crude Oil support as mentioned is at 46/48 $/BBL and we do not see that breaking till early part of next year. Upper side we do not see Crude Oil going significantly beyond 72 and overall range will be between 48-72.

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