SGX Nifty 20th May 2016

SGX Nifty

LTP  8,576.00   -128.00   -1.49% High 8,710.00 Low 8,546.50

SGX Nifty

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SGX Nifty 20th May 2016

SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures today was seen lower on weak Asian cues. Overnight Fed announced it is prepared to hike rates in June 2016 if the overall economic data supports it to raise rates then it will go ahead and do it. Overall as per our Nifty Futures tips / Nifty prediction we remain of the same nifty view that overall pullbacks will come and go but main trend in Nifty Futures will remain down. Please once again understand our view is for the next few months and not for the next one week or 10 days. For the next few months we do not see long making any money. The only way to make money will be selling the rally at appropriate points and for investors the only way to make money is to book out of the current portfolio and wait for lower side levels to reenter long positions. As of now our trailing valuations system is showing a over heated situation on the valuations front and in our historical testing we have never seen any investor making money by parking money at such valuations. When we have studied portfolios of savvy investors all of them have bought stocks very cheap and near the bottom formation cycle which as per our analysis still has some time to go. Hence we have recommended our clients to  book profits in portolios and be on as much cash as possible. Our only recommendations as of now are being long in MSL, Bajaj Hindustan, Eid Parry, Ugar sugar, Tata Coffee and Renuka sugar. Kesoram and Nmdc are on our radar but that too we will reenter only once we see a dip on lower side prices not at current prices.

Nifty Share Price / Nifty Charts do not show any signs of a run away but we expect the sluggish movements to continue for the next few days. Overall we remain bearish as we see larger time frame charts to show lower top and lower bottom formation which is a classic sign of bearish move and we will be trading in and out as we see fit and as per opportunity.  From a tactical trading stand point it will be better to sell calls rather than even selling Nifty Futures or instruments which have time value built into it or which will give you prem benefit. Please keep that in mind and trade. (If you are trading only on the basis of this post then please use appropriate risk management and trade )

SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures Minor Trend is down / bearish. SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures Major Trend is down / bearish.  Bullish move is over and on any rise get out of longs (View is for next few months, if Nifty gives a pullback then please do not ask me how, what etc. Pullbacks will come and go but risk reward ratio favors selling here not buying from the perspective and context of next few months)

Good Trading To You!

Chat Transcript as given today

[08:59, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Gm
[08:59, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Positions as told till next update. Also holding 1 part stbt trade in Nifty May Fut now
[09:34, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told
[09:35, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Book profit in stbt trade
[09:35, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Confirmation stbt trade booked
[09:36, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Positions as told till next update.
[09:36, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: We now have 3 parts positional trade open
[09:50, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Usdinr tgt 68.10 spot
[10:54, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Positions as told till next update.
[10:54, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Wait for msg to sell more
[10:54, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Trend is down
[10:54, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Do not see nifty sustaining on higher side
[10:54, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Please strictly follow msg and trade
[10:55, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Please do not do any interpretation trades
[11:31, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: if anything has to be done I will update
[11:32, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Usdinr Hold 1 Part Long as told. Reiterate TGT 68.10 spot
[13:04, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Positions as told till next update.
[14:23, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Positions as told till next update
[14:24, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Volumes very low
[14:24, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Nifty Share Price / Nifty Chat does not indicate any strength to move higher. Any pullback as mentioned will turn out to be a lower top and we do not expect Nifty prices to sustain on the higher side
[14:25, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: overall our Nifty view remains negative on the markets for the near term and we will roll over our positions at an appropriate time to June Fut  or may be even sell calls if we see time value advantage
[14:25, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: please update your msg tone
[14:26, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Hold positions as told and wait for msg to sell more
[14:27, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Trend remains on the downside but as mentioned that till 29th May 2016 we could keep seeing counter trend pullbacks or this sort of consolidation pattern. Since Venus is changing house we could see negativity coming in prices shortly
[14:27, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: please avoid any interpretation trades and please strictly follow msg and trade
[14:29, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: When we say to sell calls or Nifty Fut please strictly follow that only do not do any interpretation trades please. We are suggesting a trade based on some background situation. buying of puts to make fast money will not work. please do not even try that
[14:46, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 2 Parts Shorts. Hold Positions as told till next update
[14:47, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Shanti sea hold karo if anything to be done I will update
[14:51, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty Book 1 Part and hold 2 parts.
[14:51, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: confirmation Nifty positional 1 part booked
[14:51, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 1 Part Short. Hold Positions as told till next update
[14:52, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Usdinr Hold 1 Part Long as told
[14:52, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 1 Part Short. Hold Positions as told till next update
[14:52, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: we now have 2 parts shorts please note
[14:56, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: just follow msg and trade and make money
[14:56, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: do not use your head and my head together. either follow or you trade as per your calculations
[14:58, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: and meherbani karke please do not listen to your broker / friend / building wala or trail wala or some so called experts on cnbc or et now. They have no idea of whats going on
[14:59, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: as Nifty is sideways with a down bias we will be adjusting positions from a tactical stand point and selling calls or instruments with high time value or prem so that to create a buffer and gain from that
[15:02, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: when we do reco fresh trade please trade aramse do not over trade please
[15:02, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 1 Part Short. Hold Positions as told till next update
[15:06, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Accumulate Renuka sugar @ cmp
[15:09, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: only 2 parts open in shorts
[15:10, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: please note
[15:10, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: Positional Trade Update Nifty June 7600 Call Hold 1 Part Shorts & Nifty May Futures Hold 1 Part Short. Hold Positions as told till next update
[15:14, 19/5/2016] +91 90040 79145: rest we will see tomorrow. have fun tc see you tomorrow morn