SGX Nifty 21st Oct 2016

SGX Nifty

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SGX Nifty 21st Oct 2016

SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures continued its consolidation. As per our analysis we do not see upsides going to sustain and by this we do not mean that price can not retest 8740 area sure it can but the larger point that we are making is that it wont hold for long as the main trend has turned lower.






When we do a objective analysis we can clearly see that price area of 8550 has been taken out and post that we have had a move very similar to that of move that started from 8550 area towards the 8800 area but post that pullback once again Nifty started falling. In a similar manner we do not see these levels sustaining and we see prices moving lower. Regular readers of this website and our clients know that our eventual target for the Nifty is at 5872 and we see that coming and we do not see that target coming directly there will be pullbacks which will be very sharp in between the down fall but overall price will keep trending lower.





As of now corrective move is on and it should end shortly post which we will begin the down move. Keep in mind that move on the down side will not be a straight fall in the starting phase it will be a zig zag movement and we expect markets to behave in a very similar manner to that of Mercury retrograde period. (we have explained multiple times what happens during a mercury retrograde so you can read the previous post to see all details pertaining to Mercury retrograde).





Jupiter is in Libra and that is creating a swing between both bulls and bears and hence we will keep seeing both side sharp movements in a zig zag manner. We do not expect a one sided rise nor a one sided fall.  Please keep that in mind. If you are trading only on the basis of this post please use appropriate risk management and then only trade. Please do not over trade and kindly manage your own risk before trading.

As far as investors go we once again reiterate our view that these are not prices and valuations to buy. In our case studies we have always seen investors who have made big money over time have always bought the stock at very cheap valuations and we do not see the current valuations cheap by any yard stick so we once again reiterate that we do not see any investor making money buying the broader market stocks at current valuations. There will be some exceptions to certain stocks which have deep value or are under going some transformation in terms of technology and our next multi bagger is coming from that space. When we identify a great value buy we have to do multiple levels of checks and as of today we have sent our research guys to the plant of the company to see how the expansion in capacity and other raw material cost will be working out in the next few years there by once we have done all the final checks in place we will update that to our PAS clients.

Ugar sugar is now at a good price and can be accumulated below 38. We see good value in this stock in the coming time. Renuka sugar is also at a good price and below 16 can be accumulated. Both these stocks will do very well in the coming time. With regards to MSL we see that some corporate actions are in the pipeline and we could see the stock price heading significantly higher from current prices too. As per some source based information some brokers who are close to the management have been aggressively buying in their own proprietary accounts and the same pattern has been observed in some HNI circle who is closely associated with the management of MSL. Although we do not believe in trading or investing based on such speculative information and we always believe to chase value stocks but still for short term perspective some traders can keep a close watch on the price volume and delivery behavior may be you could make some quick money out of them.

Gold Prices bounced back well from the lower support area of 1244 dollars and in the near term we have booked profits in Gold as we see massive strength in the dollar index. The value of the green back is expected to move higher in the coming days and the price action is suggesting a FED Rate hike in the offering. Keep in mind that if Dollar Index moves past 98.60 it is almost a given that a FED rate hike is coming in Nov 2016 and that will start a massive risk off globally and especially in the emerging markets basket. I hope people have benefited from our view on crude oil.

Good Trading To You!

 

36 thoughts on “SGX Nifty 21st Oct 2016

  1. Hi,
    how much is multibagger package alone? It is not given under Charges, please add it. Hope it will not be 4000 per month then it becomes 48000/year, which is very costly. Will there be atleast 5 stocks in a year?

    Thanks,
    km.

    1. do one company visit to one factory you will know what the analyst charges and experts hired cost. as a concession we are offering for people who have been requesting at 7800 PM. No fixed calls as and when call generates we will provide.

      1. Sir,
        Is it possible to opt this service on case to case basis, like cost basis power multibagger? I guess there are lot of people including me who want to subscribe on multibagger service but not finding correct package.

        Regards
        Anpat2015

    1. No change in view. Please read carefully. current move zig zag 5872 final target and if I change view so be it so what my clients are making money and so am I that is what matters, your comments and crab mentality does not

  2. I don’t know abcd of technical analysis . I only know that no faith no gain. I know nifty will not show 9000 before it shows 5887….it may take 2 months or 2 years….it does not matter. Only faith on glenn sir will make me on profit.that’s all.

    1. what will you loose if 8500 breaks? I have asked you last time also. By the way why were you not seen here when Nifty was at 8506. You were not here to rpely to some comments.

  3. Very good and unique analysis. Hope your view comes true without delay. Started tracking dollar index as your mentioned 98.60 level.

  4. You maintain your bearish stance with targets below 6000 in the long term assuming that all time high is a top which wont be crossed. The fall wont be vertical …i.e no crash scenario or downward circuit , but slow & steady down move. To catch the larger trend can we simply buy 8500 puts for December 2015 expiry or 8000 puts for march 2017 expiry ?

      1. Got it, the slow & steady downward move part is wrong interpretation on my part. It is downward trend with extreme volatility. Instead of buying puts , writing calls & booking profits regularly would be more beneficial. I hope I got it right now. Thanks.

  5. Dear Glen now u are in defencing mood about nifty target 5872, not aggressive, but my sense is nifty broke 8000 on 4/11/2016 on friiiiiii day.what is ur opinion.

  6. Everything fine in the update except rate hike in NOV. Although Fed is Stupid but before election rate hike means economy collapse which Obama may not prefer.

      1. I too was skeptical about Nov rate hike as hardly anyone in the world is expecting it. Also US elections on the cards but as you are so clearly suggesting it there has to be some concrete analysis. Sure if fed hikes rate on Nov 2 there would be a risk off in equities.

        Regards
        Anpat2015

      2. Dollar index is strong but Fed will again make some stupid comments and will say we want more strong data and keep buying bonds.

  7. Markets feeling heavy, looks like everybody is only thinking long. When this happens boom, flood gates will open down ! Sir, nobody is talking about 8500, forget lower levels .. this is dangerous sheep mentality !

    Let one round of long stops get triggered and then see the fun in the market ..

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