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SGX Nifty 22nd Aug 2016
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OVERALL VIEW ON THE NIFTY AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THIS POST. IF YOU ARE TRADING ONLY ON THE BASIS OF THIS POST PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE RISK MANAGEMENT AND THEN ONLY TRADE. PLEASE DO NOT OVER TRADE.
SGX Nifty continued its consolidation as it has been doing over the past few trading days. As per our overall Nifty view we are very clear that the move from 6825 to now is not an impulse move but rather it is just a corrective wave that started from the lower side. We have very clearly said that at 7000 levels when everyone was bearish and talking about lower side levels of 6500 that from current prices we will see a sharp up move towards 8250 and then we will see even lower levels from 7000 area. You may please go through our past predictions given in the month of Feb 2016. Initially we were predicting 8800 as our target but during the move we made some mistakes in our analysis and we then had changed our prediction to 825” cycle and now since the “Bina karran tezi” cycle is almost done we are very clear that a major down move cycle that is actually a part of the previous move that started on 4th March 2015 will resume taking Nifty to much more levels on the downside from here. So we are very clear that panic is about to start and in that move most of the front line stocks will lose a lot of value from current prices.
Many people have be calling and asking me about the what will happen to sugar stocks when the down move starts. As per our understanding we do not see sugar sector being affected by the down move and we expect sugar stocks to continue moving higher and they will continue to outperform the market by huge margin. On dips investors must still buy Renuka sugar, Eid Parry, Bajaj Hindustand, Ugar sugar. All these stocks will continue to do well. We have reentered Ugar sugar at 39 two days back and we expect the stock price to do very well even from current prices. MSL and Tata coffee also will do very well.
Yesterday we had mentioned that USDINR is headed higher and we already started seeing the fast move. I am not suggesting that INR will depreciate every single day but on a weekly basis if seen we expect the INR to keep depreciating and we do not expect INR to move towards 63 as most market participants and thinking. Traders must be hedged for their imports at least for the next 3-4 months as in this move we could even see 72. Please keep in mind that are being very optimistic about the INR depreciation saga that is about to play out.
Good Trading To You!