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SGX Nifty 22nd Feb 2016
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS MY OVERALL VIEW ON THE NIFTY AND THAT DOES NOT MEAN PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THIS POST. IF YOU ARE TRADING ONLY ON THE BASIS OF THIS POST PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE RISK MANAGEMENT AND THEN ONLY TRADE.
SGX Nifty / Nifty Futures continued its time pass within a range and as per our analysis Nifty will continue doing this time pass for few more days but once this range bound time pass is done or even minor variations are done as per our Nifty Prediction / Nifty View we see sharp downside movement. As we have said that Nifty will now in a few days start under performing the Global stock markets which have already broken down and are currently in a pullback stage. Once their pullbacks end they will resume the down side moves and in turn Nifty Futures will start playing catch up on the downside and under perform the world stock markets but still a few more days are remaining for that to start happening. The risk reward ratio does not favor buying at all. Booking profits / selling will make money but from 2-3 months perspective. Please do not over trade. Trade with appropriate risk management only.
As per our wave counts we see that more or less the top is done and the larger pullback that started from 6825 is about to end. Once this pullback ends we will see a resumption of the down cycle that started on 9119 levels on 4th March 2015. This down ward cycle will surprise most of the bulls and most traders as the ferocity of the down move will look like a fresh mandi cycle. Extreme caution is advised in long trades. Post Brexit polls we see volatility starting to pick up. We do not see good agri output this year and that in turn will not boost rural incomes. If that does not happen then we do not see rural economy driving growth for India. Across parameters we study on the macro front we see total strangulation in all aspects of business and that never has been a sign of a growing economy. In fact such conditions are always just before massive collapse takes place. With inflation on path to show 4th rise in the next month there will be real serious problems for interest rates to remain where they are currently. More factors we will discuss over the next few days.
On brexit keep in mind that astro cycles suggest that relation of EU and UK will change shortly and there could be a lot of confusion.
This is what we had mentioned in our 22nd Feb 2016 Update
“We could also see one of the most powerful “Bina kaaran Tezi” for this calendar year which we see will begin anytime now. We are not in the camp which believes that Nifty will come towards 6500 now, sure we will see 6500 and even 5851 but not now. As of now there will be a massive bullish cycle which has to as per rule suck every bearish guy into massive tezi. As the street is in a total consensus that we will see 6500 now and then 6300 similarly the street and entire analyst fraternity will talk to 10500 at that point in time but please remember Rahu (North Node) who will power this move will only end up creating hyper valuations and froth. We once again are repeating that longer term we will still fall so please understand this is only a trade in and out move not a buy for 10 years and sit. This is not the time to “Buy right and sit tight” it is just the time to “Buy right and then book higher and then wait again to buy right”.”
This is what we had mentioned in our 24th Feb 2016 Update
“Like as of now everyone is talking about 6500 and 6300. Sure 6300 will come I am not denying that in fact even 5851 will come but before that final bear cycle comes we will see a massive “Bina kaarann tezi cycle” which will be very similar to the 1999 boom of dot com. Everyone on earth from your chai walla to the pan walla will start talking about 10500,12500 at that juncture this bullish cycle will end not before that. “
This is what we had mentioned in our 11th March 2016 Update
“As per our Indian Stock Market tips / Nifty Prediction we see Nifty heading towards 8250 in this round and we do not see any significant downside from here so the strategy must be to use dips to buy and hold on dips or consolidation or on small stop loss points, under no circumstances is this market a sell on rise for now. “
Most regular readers and clients are well aware that what we had predicted in early Feb 2016 was this very scenario that is currently taking place. In spite of no real reason we did see sharp bounce from lower side levels and we have reached our targets of 8250. Our overall estimates was that Nifty will make a top around 8000 levels more or less that too has been done. We may have got in shorts a little ahead of time but that does not mean that our wave counts are wrong. We have checked our wave counts, astro cycles, time cycles and multiple other parameters. All of the systems are showing us that the fall is imminent. The current move is on a unsustainable path. Besides agro commodities we do not see any real value in equities. We see sharp declines in the making and that could be sudden out of now where. In addition to all these systems logically we do not see buying at these valuations or deploying fresh cash at these valuations making any money. (No one in history has made money nor will they make money at these valuations as W D Gann said “Every movement in the market is the result of a natural law and of a Cause which exists long before the Effect takes place and can be determined years in advance. The future is but a repetition of the past, as the Bible plainly states…”)
Use all dips to buy and accumulate MSL, Bajaj Hind, EID Parry, Renuka Sugar, NMDC, Tata Coffee. All these stocks will do very well in the coming time. These stocks can be bought with 12-36 months view. These stocks are not for trading purpose but for investment only. Only those traders who have spare capital must buy them. Silver will continue doing well. Sugar and Coffee also will zoom in the coming time we remain bullish on them.
Good Trading To You!